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Sup. In your e mail solutions to Tuesday’s query concerning the worst coach you’d rent as an alternative of potential Arkansas retread (and present interim) Bobby Petrino:
The most important shock was 2006-2010 Minnesota Vikings coach Brad Childress, beneficial by reader Greg. You realize, now that you just point out it, the retired 69-year-old was as soon as a coordinator for Barry Alvarez, identical to (comparatively non-embarrassing) former Hogs coach Bret Bielema …
Nonetheless, your most frequent selection was former Tennessee coach Butch Jones. He’s presently 20-35 at Arkansas State, however he’s the reigning champion of Cell’s bowl recreation, and most significantly, he has zero motorbike scandals.
The Watch Grid: What an unlikely headliner
Two preliminary notes on this week’s schedule information, since I haven’t talked about them shortly (and this text has a number of new readers):
These received’t all the time be about spotlighting solely competent groups. I’ll usually exclude video games wherein elites are favored by quite a few touchdowns. In right now’s chart, there isn’t any Kentucky-Georgia or Minnesota-Ohio State, as an example.
This time, you’ll as an alternative see distinguished remedy for a nooner between 1-3 and 2-2 ACC disappointments. I’ve on condition that recreation an honor I’ve awarded all through the previous half-decade of the Watch Grid: the Sickos Recreation of the Week. We won’t faux we’re above rubbernecking the distressed Dabo Swinney vs. 14.5-point underdog Invoice Belichick.
Elsewhere, intrigue abounds as all the time, however the eye is drawn to 1 oddity above all else: Vanderbilt is within the weekend’s greatest recreation. Sure, greater than a Miami-FSU assembly worthy of their rivalry’s earlier days. For one factor, we have seen the latter many instances earlier than.
Past that, the truth that that is fairly arguably the largest recreation in Vandy’s 135-year historical past is noteworthy, however this is what takes it to the subsequent stage: It would imply as a lot to Alabama followers because it means to Vanderbilt followers, merely due to how horrendous it could really feel to lose. Billion-time champ Bama has to care about what occurs within the Vandy recreation, which was the glorified FCS recreation! Think about a second straight yr of Bama righting the season by beating Georgia — after which instantly dropping to the SEC’s longtime runt. Chilly sweats in Tuscaloosa.
Have a look at these two potential situations:
If the ten.5-point highway underdog wins consecutive video games in opposition to the Tide for the primary time since 1956 (two years earlier than Bear Bryant arrived), then Diego Pavia holds successful streaks in opposition to each Iron Bowl head coaches. Vanderbilt turns into a legit contender to win the SEC for the primary time since … nicely, the closest comp was over a century in the past, when the SEC was nonetheless incubating inside the Southern Convention.
If Clark Lea’s staff cannot pull off the upset, then Kalen DeBoer, who had been hot-seated just a few weeks prior, instantly has 2025’s finest one-loss resume by far, with two wins over top-20 groups which have in any other case not misplaced. Nick Saban used to do the “finest one-loss resume” factor continuously, however he by no means owed a lot of that standing to having crushed the SEC’s all-time losingest program. Once more, the thought of the freaking Crimson Tide celebrating a win over Vandy is simply as weird as Vandy being in a giant recreation to start with.
Extra Vandy:
Pavia has been unstoppable. However what about his courtroom battle with the NCAA?
Another excuse to take pleasure in this underdog: They’re superb at leaving highway locker rooms clear. ☝️ The soccer philosophy behind choosing up after your self.
Sure, in fact Pavia has popped off this week. “If we play our recreation, it will not be shut.” NBD, it is simply one other roster packed filled with five-stars.
Extra Week 6:
Fast Snaps
🐊 Why is Florida on the verge of its fourth coach-firing in 12 years? How can it presumably be this tough to constantly win large as the one SEC faculty in a top-tier expertise state? Matt has six interconnected theories, however — and this is the enjoyable half — all of them embody their very own apparent rebuttals. The Gator thriller.
Texas-Florida might be Billy Napier’s final stand, although it is also UF’s newest powerful recreation wherein the unfold is merely a landing. On the similar time, this assembly may ship Arch Manning fear into overdrive. Right this moment on “The Audible” podcast, Bruce, Ralph and Stew speak this season’s big-name QB disappointments.
😬 Re-hiring one in all your staff’s former coaches to carry again the glory days doesn’t are likely to go nicely, except he is Invoice Snyder. Trace, trace, Arkansas … particularly since Petrino’s already failed that precise take a look at at Louisville.
🍀 Why 2-2 Notre Dame initiatives to be the most-debated staff on this yr’s Playoff race. No, the reply is not “as a result of it is Notre Dame.”
🐶 For all of the complaints about OC Mike Bobo (which have now lasted for about 3,000 years throughout his two stints in Athens), Georgia’s predominant drawback occurs to be Kirby Sensible’s specialty: protection. It was each the perfect and deepest unit within the nation just some years in the past, however now what?
🪖 Spend a meticulously deliberate day alongside Jeff Monken, Military’s Twelfth-year head coach. 5 minutes of salad and banana at 2 p.m.? Certain, that is lunch.
The continued U.S. authorities shutdown won’t impression Air Drive, Military or Navy video games.
📰 Information:
The CFP introduced New Orleans because the 2027 season’s title recreation host. Miami this season, with Las Vegas subsequent.
Brutal losses for No. 14 Iowa State: Each beginning cornerbacks achieved for the yr.
Oregon RB Makhi Hughes, who’d twice ranked top-10 in complete speeding yardage at Tulane, is redshirting after barely seeing the sphere this season. One of many yr’s greatest switch disappointments.
“The Pac-12’s convention realignment lawsuit in opposition to the Mountain West will proceed after a federal choose denied all 4 elements of the MWC’s movement to dismiss the case.”
🎬 I hopped on the debut of “Sports activities Motion pictures That Do not Suck,” my pal (and former assistant CFB editor on a earlier workers) Pete Volk’s new podcast, to speak about “I, Tonya.” We recorded months in the past, however occurred to pitch a Petrino neck-brace caper in the identical unreliable-narrator model as Margot Robbie’s 2017 Tonya Harding film.
Context: Yep, it is just about all the time this chaotic
One thing I’ve seen folks questioning:
There are solely 13 undefeated groups within the AP Prime 25. Is that an particularly small quantity for this time of yr? Has the switch portal created such parity that we’re working out of elite contenders at charges unexpected? Does this have something to do with all these Necessary New Developments we’ve got to listen to about day by day however don’t perceive? Like tariffs? Zillion-dollar investments in AI devices that inform assured lies while you ask them for fundamental MLB stats? Mr. Beast?
This has arguably been a barely extra chaotic season than ordinary, however solely very barely, at the least based mostly on that metric. The final pre-portal season, 2018, really had 12 unbeaten Prime 25 groups at this level, one fewer than the present complete. The typical over the previous 10 (non-2020) years: 14.
This season additionally occurred to have an atypically big Week 1 recreation, Texas-Ohio State. With out that on the schedule, the present Prime 25 would seemingly equal the typical variety of undefeateds.
Oregon-Penn State was additionally actually early for the Large Ten, which has often saved marquee video games till mid-October, or at the least did that within the years earlier than it acquired the marquee-worthy Geese. Possibly TV taking ever higher management of the schedule has unfold a little bit of October’s upheaval into September.
Most significantly: The ball all the time bounces a technique when it may’ve simply as simply bounced the opposite approach. The 12 ranked groups with losses have misplaced 10 of these video games by single scores, whereas 10 of the undefeated Prime 25 groups have mixed for 17 one-score wins. I am guessing these numbers are additionally fairly near regular, although I am not trying all that up right now.
I am going to verify again on another numbers like this close to the top of October. I am betting we’ll have a reasonably comparable variety of elite and/or actually good groups as ordinary, since questions like this come up just about each autumn, each pre- and post-portal.
In truth, right here was slightly examine I did in 2019, discovering the 2006-2018 seasons largely adopted comparable rhythms. I’m interested by updating it in just a few weeks, although, now that we’ve got a number of portal/NIL years to account for.
And eventually, a portion of Stewart Mandel’s new mailbag:
Mandel’s Mailbag
Has there ever been a coach like James Franklin? — Joe
There have been loads of “can’t win the large one” coaches, however Franklin’s break up is actually excessive. If you happen to take away his first two seasons, when the Nittany Lions had been nonetheless within the throes of NCAA sanctions, his file turns into 4-18 vs. the Prime 10, 86-13 in opposition to everybody else.
However context is every part. As I wrote final week, Franklin’s groups had been the underdog in each regular-season Prime 10 recreation they performed — of which there have been 20 — up till final week’s Oregon recreation. Even at 2-18 in these video games, he really exceeded the expectations set by Vegas. Whereas he’s had some superb groups at Penn State, they weren’t on the similar stage as City Meyer’s or Ryan Day’s Ohio State groups or peak Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan groups, which collectively accounted for roughly 75 p.c of these losses.
The counterpoint, in fact, is that if Franklin had been a greater coach, then he would have been on their stage. I don’t disagree. However nor would I anticipate him to be .500 in these Prime 10 video games.
Within the preseason, my colleague Ralph Russo wrote a Franklin story that included a chart with the data of many distinguished coaches in opposition to Prime 5, Prime 10 and Prime 25 groups. Our stats whiz Matt Brown offered me with comparable information for just a few extra. There are a number of extremely revered coaches who had some fairly ugly Prime 10 data — Invoice Snyder (5-38), Frank Beamer (8-33) and Kirk Ferentz (12-29). However nobody expects the coaches of Kansas State, Virginia Tech or Iowa to compete on the similar stage as Penn State.
Franklin’s closest analogues right now are Lane Kiffin and Brian Kelly. Kiffin is 3-11 vs. Prime 5 and 6-15 vs. Prime 10; Kelly at Notre Dame and LSU is 2-10 vs. Prime 5, 8-19 vs. Prime 10. Kiffin seemingly will get a cross as a result of we affiliate him primarily with Ole Miss at this level, not Tennessee and USC.
Clearly, 4-21 in opposition to Prime 10 groups is 4-21, however the Oregon recreation didn’t really feel like most Franklin Prime 10 video games of the previous. His staff really confirmed life in coming again and taking the lead, and finally misplaced in double additional time. I’m not going to crush him over this one. Nor am I holding my breath over the subsequent.
Full Mandel mailbag right here on Ole Miss, Georgia and extra.
Bonus materials from that Prime 25 part above: Amongst ranked groups, solely Missouri, Texas Tech and Vanderbilt have crushed all their opponents by greater than eight factors every. Completely regular group of groups to have achieved that. Oh, and unranked Maryland has achieved it. Nice, I’ve talked myself again into the September Terps being ranked. Reaching 5-0 by beating 3-1 Washington as 6.5-point dwelling underdogs would get it achieved. That one’s in Manny’s predictions checklist too.
(An reverse word, from the identical Matt Brown talked about above: The one FBS staff but to guide at any level in any recreation is UCLA. Now the Bruins are 25.5-point dwelling canine in opposition to an indignant No. 7 Penn State.)
The Athletic’s most-read faculty sports activities story of September, aside from some weekend-recap stuff: Prime 10 faculty bars 2025.
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(Prime picture: Carly Mackler / Getty Pictures)
