Week 4 is CFB's dark-horse weekend, plus who is 2025's Indiana?

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At this time in school soccer information, “publish a film you want with a horrible Rotten Tomatoes rating” was a enjoyable pattern. “Occasion Horizon” and “Sizzling Rod” for me.

The Watch Grid: Plenty of upstarts can separate themselves

Who is that this 12 months’s Indiana? The brief reply to that frequent query: There nearly definitely isn’t one. (Extra on that under.)

However possibly we imply one thing extra modest, like, “Who will likely be this 12 months’s least-blueblood CFP participant?” In that case, we now have a number of candidates, and this weekend will weed via fairly just a few of them.

One cause 2024’s 11-2 Indiana was such a shock: The Hoosiers had by no means received double-digit video games earlier than. With that in thoughts, in line with Austin Mock’s up to date Playoff projections, listed below are the perfect 2025 CFP odds amongst power-conference groups that final had 10-win seasons 14 or extra years in the past:

Texas Tech (2008), 33 p.c probability to make the Playoff
NC State (2002), 8 p.c
Kansas (2007), 3 p.c
Vanderbilt (by no means), 2 p.c
Cal (2006), 2 p.c

You possibly can prolong that record all the best way right down to 2-1 Arkansas (1 p.c) and even 3-0 Rutgers (<1 p.c). Or, for those who lowered the edge to 13 years, you would add Nebraska (14 p.c) and Texas A&M (42 p.c), however these aren’t precisely upstarts.

Right here’s one other record. Amongst powers that haven’t completed within the AP prime 5 prior to now 60 years:

Ole Miss, 47 p.c probability to make the Playoff, per Mock’s projections
Iowa State, 45 p.c
Texas Tech
Louisville, 17 p.c
Illinois, 12 p.c

Indiana (18 p.c) simply missed the minimize by having completed No. 5 in 1967, so embrace the Hoosiers too. Actually, Indiana making each of the primary two 12-team Playoff fields could be as massive a shock as anything.

And naturally we must always point out Mock’s prime CFP odds amongst G5 groups:

Tulane, 37 p.c probability to make the Playoff
Navy, 18 p.c 👀
Memphis, 14 p.c
USF, 8 p.c
Boise State, 7 p.c

Additionally, as a result of we’re speaking as a lot about public notion as we’re about workforce accomplishments, that closing record may embrace groups that joined the power-conference stage inside the previous 20 years, which suggests there are nonetheless individuals who consider them as Cinderellas regardless of their many massive wins. Tops there: Utah (33 p.c).

Nevertheless we outline it, have a look at what number of of these bold-text Upstart Contenders have enormous alternatives this weekend:

Past the CFP stuff, by way of letting your eyeballs merely observe soccer, that is additionally a well-balanced and really quadbox-worthy Saturday. Three must-monitor video games in every time vary, plus no matter is occurring concurrently in your workforce’s convention, beginning with the early spherical:

The Large 12’s present model: an entire bunch of fine groups, however possibly just one elite at a time. Among the many undefeateds, Texas Tech at Utah (-3 per BetMGM) may assist set up an precise higher class.
The 104th Iron Skillet battle between 2-0 TCU (-7) and 2-1 SMU would be the final, a minimum of for now. Dave Wilson on the historical past of this rivalry, as soon as the largest deal in all of soccer.
2-1 Arkansas (-7.5) at 3-0 Memphis is one in every of two video games during which a top-tier contender for the G5’s CFP spot may snatch Shiniest Takedown standing away from 2-1 USF.

The center of Saturday:

Auburn at Oklahoma (-6.5) will set up a 4-0 SEC darkish horse (and doubtless hurl the newly 3-1 coach again into hot-seat frenzies), and it will additionally add to the 1989-2025 historical past of QB revenge video games as Auburn’s Jackson Arnold returns to Norman.
If 3-0 Nebraska wins at dwelling towards 2-1 Michigan (-2.5), anticipate some chatter concerning the Wolverines’ artistic timing of head coach Sherrone Moore’s suspension. Lacking the Large Ten opener?
3-0 Tulane at 3-0 Ole Miss (-12.5) is the opposite recreation during which a lil man may turn into a near-favorite to make the CFP. And hey, the Rebels additionally appeared in a kind of dark-horse lists up prime. Former SEC rivals!

And from the East Coast night onward:

Extra Week 4:

Fast Snaps

💰 Kickoff instances aren’t the one draw back of the Large Ten’s sellout to Fox. See additionally the Dave Portnoy factor.

👯 Because of Travis Hunter, groups have already turn into extra open-minded about having sure gamers strive enjoying on each side.

🏹 Among the many 4 Manning household QBs, Arch hasn’t had the worst begin to his school profession, a minimum of. Extra Arch under. (Since this text is a product of faculty soccer media, I notice you’d already assumed there’s all the time extra Arch under.)

🐯 As CBS Sports activities’ Robby Kalland exhibits, Dabo Swinney’s defensive rants have turn into an annual custom. At this level, I do not actually thoughts them. It isn’t really soccer season till Clemson information conferences flip into R&B laments about unappreciative lovers.

🐱 Meet this season’s finest mascot: Bowling Inexperienced’s wise-looking Pudge the cat.

📰 Information:

“Texas A&M security Bryce Anderson didn’t undergo any catastrophic accidents from the collision that pressured him to be stretchered off the sector through the Aggies’ 41-40 win over Notre Dame, the college introduced on Wednesday.” Particulars.
“Florida assistant Jabbar Juluke suspended three video games for position in scuffle at LSU.” That was positively a scuffle. Greater than a dustup, however nowhere close to a brouhaha.
Colorado’s weekly QB change? Again to sq. one, it appears.
“Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia’s lawyer units stage to problem for seventh season of eligibility.” Go for 10, coward! Talking of Nashville:

Longshots: The closest factor to a different Indiana

In order for you the 2025 season to provide a model of 2024’s miracle Hoosiers, there’s just one workforce with a CFP shot that might match that underdog invoice.

Not 3-0 Illinois, which entered the season as AP No. 12 — far, far, far too excessive to be a 2024 Indiana comp. Not 3-0 Cal, this system of Aaron Rodgers and Marshawn Lynch. Not 3-0 NC State, which has been someplace between Mid and Fairly First rate roughly 9 years per decade ceaselessly.

As famous above, Vanderbilt has by no means had a 10-win season earlier than, with solely two nine-win seasons (each by James Franklin through the SEC East’s flop period) prior to now 110 years. Vandy’s historic profitable proportion within the SEC (.250) is even decrease than Indiana’s within the Large Ten (.306). Checklist of first-team All-Professionals from Vandy, per Professional Soccer Reference: punter Jim Arnold (as soon as).

Within the convention’s official media ballot, the Dores have been picked to complete thirteenth within the 16-team SEC this 12 months, and that wasn’t an unfair choose.

However at 3-0, with blowout street wins at Virginia Tech and South Carolina, No. 20 Vandy is likely to be a major underdog in simply three remaining video games (journeys to Alabama, Texas and Tennessee). Subsequent two video games ought to be gimmes towards Utah State and Georgia State — however to re-emphasize the Indiana-ness right here, recall the Commodores misplaced to GSU final 12 months.

This week, a number of web customers even seen FPI at the moment charges the Dores as dwelling favorites towards LSU and Auburn later within the season. Within the Massey Composite of pc scores, Vandy ranks No. 22, forward of contenders like Iowa State, Clemson and Texas Tech. Hey, keep in mind when Vandy beat Alabama final 12 months, and practically additionally beat Missouri and Texas?

It is a good distance from 3-0 to the 10-2 possible required for the SEC’s century-long doormat to make the Playoff. However if you would like one other Indiana, that is what it’s going to take. (Now that I’ve mentioned this, Rutgers will peel off eight wins in a row.)

Now over to a pull from Stewart Mandel’s new mailbag:

Mandel’s Mailbag

As a Texas fan: What can Arch do to enhance his play over the season? And if he doesn’t, what are the workforce’s possibilities of making the CFP? — Luke

I do know everybody’s reflexive reply is, “He’s simply not that good,” however I discover that tough to consider. Possibly he’s not the second coming, however he ought to be finishing greater than 55 p.c of his passes. He shouldn’t be going 11-of-25 towards UTEP. Usually, you see QBs’ cross effectivity scores go up every year, not down. His ranking has gone from 184.0 in 2024 to 128.7 in 2025. I notice he didn’t begin towards Ohio State final 12 months, however he had a better ranking towards the Buckeyes (108.6) than the Miners (87.5).

It appears to me the three more than likely explanations are:

He has a case of the yips.
He’s having a disaster of confidence.
He can’t see with out his Warby Parker glasses.

I’m going with choice two. However there could also be one other clarification linked to that one: He has nearly no assist.

After Steve Sarkisian’s dashing offense ranked within the prime 20 throughout his first three seasons, Texas slipped to 74th final 12 months (4.3 yards per try). The ‘Horns are 73rd this 12 months (4.4), and Arch is their main rusher. Final 12 months’s prime rusher, Quintrevion Wisner, missed the final two video games. CJ Baxter, who missed all of final season, had a pleasant recreation towards San Jose State (13 carries, 64 yards), solely to undergo a hamstring damage on the primary play of the sport final week.

And Texas’ attrition on the offensive line is exhibiting. Left deal with Trevor Goosby and veteran beginning guard DJ Campbell have been stable, however the different three are grading out at under common, per Professional Soccer Focus. To be clear, Manning has had no scarcity of unpolluted pockets to work with and no scarcity of open receivers he’s lacking. However it could be that Arch lacks confidence in his supporting solid, and it’s affecting his confidence in himself.

That is all a guess. Solely he himself may clarify what the heck is happening. It’s lucky for the ‘Horns they’ve an off week after Sam Houston to reset and get better earlier than visiting the Swamp on Oct. 4. Arch must get his groove again, however simply as importantly, Sarkisian wants to start out devising some recreation plans that make his quarterback extra comfy and play to his strengths.

Extra Mandel right here on Notre Dame, UCLA and others.

Final Saturday, once I was taking a look at Texas’ field rating, I saved pondering, “They need to simply run the choice,” and now I am much more satisfied. Granted, that is the identical suggestion I’ve for any workforce going through any drawback at any time.

This week, I requested you to e-mail untilsaturday@theathletic.com together with your ideas on who ought to rank No. 24. Michael answered with NASCAR’s most noteworthy No. 24, Jeff Gordon. Received me there. (In the meantime, Greg requests a belated shoutout to Rhode Island’s Bryant Bulldogs for his or her first FBS win, 27–26 over UMass. Additionally, that very same day, Bryant upset UMass’ No. 20 males’s soccer workforce. Cease enjoying Bryant!)