In what has become a tremendous appetizer before the main course that is the playoffs, the NBA Play-In tournament is here and the 2024 edition features the likes of LeBron James, Steph Curry, Zion Williamson and De’Aaron Fox.
That’s right, it’s a sign of the times that both James and Curry are duking it out in elimination games just to make the playoffs (again) and they’ll be going up against the generation that’s trying to put them to bed.
With the Lakers and Pelicans, these are two veteran teams when it comes to the Play-In, both clubs taking the scenic route to the post-season for a third time. The Warriors are in this position for a second time, while the Kings are making their Play-In debut.
Does that mean much in terms of how things will play out over the next few days? Probably not, but below is everything that should:
Western Conference: (7) New Orleans Pelicans vs. (8) L.A. Lakers @ 7:30 p.m. ET.Season series: Lakers won 3-1.
Dec. 7, 2023: Lakers won 133-89 (In-Season Tournament Semifinal)
Dec. 31, 2023: Pelicans won 129-109
Feb. 9, 2024: Lakers won 139-122
Apr. 14, 2024: Lakers won 124-108
Betting line: Lakers +1.0 | Pelicans -1.0. O/U: 223.5.
PULSE ON PELICANS (49-33)
After posting a 26-21 record through the first half of the season, the Pelicans looked phenomenal over the next couple months with a 19-7 stretch that included 12 wins by double-digits. Look a little closer, though, and nine of those wins came against sub-.500 teams. Faced with a tough stretch at the end of March and early April, New Orleans lost five of six, including losses against the Thunder, Celtics, Suns, and Magic. The Pelicans also lost to the Spurs and the lone win came against a Bucks team that has been up and down since the hiring of Doc Rivers.
One of the intriguing changes the Pelicans made midway through the season was embracing ‘Point Zion’ and employing Williamson as the team’s defacto point guard while surrounding him with shooting. It left opposing defences with very few good decisions to make. The possibility of Williamson getting downhill courtesy screens up top or being able to find open shooters if there was too much help proved to be lighter fluid for the offence. Trey Murphy struggled through the all-star break but came to life thereafter, averaging 17.1 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 1.1 steals while making 3.5 threes a game at a 39.7 per cent clip.
In terms of vitals, the Pelicans finished ninth in offensive rating and fifth in defensive rating after the trade deadline. If you’re in the top 10 in both heading into the playoffs, you’re usually in good shape. That top-five defence is largely due to the team’s versatility, courtesy of rangy, switchable defenders like Herb Jones, Murphy, Naji Marshall, and a bit surprisingly, Williamson. He has generally struggled on the defensive end throughout his career but as his fitness has ramped up over the course of the season, so has his impact on that end of the floor.
PULSE ON LAKERS (47-35)
James said it best when he felt the Lakers were capable of beating anyone or losing to anyone on any given night. The Lakers looked locked in when winning the In-Season Tournament, have faded in and out otherwise including losing 10 of 15 games between December and January, and ramped up for the playoffs by winning 11 of its final 14 games.
You know what you’re getting with the Lakers. This is a team that looks to dominate inside, whether it’s Anthony Davis and James feasting in the paint on the offensive end or Davis protecting the rim on the other. D’Angelo Russell flipped the script on his season once his name became a fixture in trade rumours, rebounding from averaging just 10.2 points in December (including 32.7 per cent shooting from deep) to 22.7 points with 45.9 per cent three-point shooting in January and mostly sustaining that form the rest of the way.
Los Angeles ranked third in offence and 21st in defence after the trade deadline, the defence indicative of a team that has struggled for consistency in its habits all season. This is a team that went from the Play-In to the West Finals a year ago and so this may just be a group that knows how to flip a switch if and only when it wants to.
X-FACTORS
Brandon Ingram (Pelicans): It feels a bit strange to list a borderline all-star as an X-Factor, but Ingram has just returned from a 12-game absence due to a left-knee contusion and his reacquaintance with the Pelicans lineup in such a high-stakes scenario will be interesting to monitor. Averaging 20.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, 5.7 assists, there’s no debating his value to this team but his potential rust and reintegration may be coming at the wrong time.
Rui Hachimura (Lakers): Hachimura has quietly been very good for the Lakers as a starter. He has averaged 16.2 points and 5.3 rebounds per game since the all-star break while shooting 56.4 per cent from the field including an eye-popping 45.1 per cent on threes. With him in the starting lineup alongside Russell, James, Austin Reaves, and Davis, the team has posted a plus-6.6 net rating. That may not jump off the page, but consider that the two previous most used lineups (one with Taurean Prince and another with Cam Reddish) were both net negatives.
KEY TO VICTORY
The one game the Pelicans won in this matchup during the regular season was with Russell injured and Reaves coming off the bench. The manner in which the Lakers won each of its three games suggests a near-perfect performance from New Orleans will be required, and that starts with neutralizing the battle at the rim while making a tonne of threes.
Williamson is yet to make his playoff debut while James is seeking to add to his legacy. How that matchup shakes out will also have a huge bearing on this contest.
Western Conference: (9) Sacramento Kings vs. (10) Golden State Warriors @ 22:00 p.m. ETSeason series: Tied 2-2.
Oct. 27, 2023: Warriors won 122-114
Nov. 1, 2023: Warriors won 102-101
Nov. 28, 2023: Kings won 124-123
Jan. 25, 2024: Kings won 134-133
Betting line: Warriors -2.5 | Kings +2.5. O/U: 223.5
PULSE ON KINGS (46-36)
Sacramento is in a sophomore slump as far as success is concerned. A year ago, they were the darlings of the NBA and lighting the beam was a league-wide celebration as the Kings came within one win of knocking off the then-defending champ Warriors in the first round. This season’s 46-win team is considered a disappointment after winning 48 games and clinching the third seed a year ago.
Such was the disregard for the Kings this season that both Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox were overlooked for all-star spots despite the former averaging 19.4 points, 13.7 rebounds, and 8.2 rebounds and registering 77 double-doubles in a season. He became the seventh player in league history to accomplish the feat and the first since Moses Malone in 1978-79. Sabonis also had a staggering stretch of 61 straight double-doubles.
The biggest sour spot on the Kings’ season are the injuries to Sixth Man of the Year candidate Malik Monk (ruled out until at least May 1 due to sprained MCL) and Kevin Huerter (out for play-in/playoffs due to shoulder surgery). The league’s best offence a year ago has dropped to 13th this season (post-trade deadline) though the defence has improved from 25th to 12th (post-trade deadline).
PULSE ON WARRIORS (46-36)
It’s a season that has tested the mental fortitude of Steph Curry like no other. Between Draymond Green’s tantrums, Klay Thompson’s decline, and Andrew Wiggins’ struggles, he has had to carry way too heavy a load for far too long this season. It resulted in some of the worst shooting slumps of his career and now he’s left having to extend himself further just to get into the playoffs.
While the stuff that’s gone wrong is easy to go on about, what has helped paper over the cracks is the play of Jonathan Kuminga, Brandon Podziemski, and Trayce Jackson-Davis. The answer to who leads the Warriors in plus/minus this season is not Curry or Green, it’s Podziemski. The rookie has an uncanny nose for the ball and just knows where to be on both ends of the floor. Jackson-Davis has made the struggles of Kevon Looney more muted while Kuminga’s rise to being a 20-point-per-game scorer has been desperately needed in the absence of vintage Thompson.
Coming back to the vitals, Golden State boasts the league’s eighth-best offence since the trade deadline and 11th-best defence. Those numbers aren’t reflective of your regular 10th seed and so this is a team that the Kings will be in tough against.
X-FACTORS
Draymond Green (Warriors): Green can always impact the game in special ways but he only played in 55 games this season largely due to a 12-game suspension for violently swinging at Jusuf Nurkic’s face. Instead of maturing with age, Green has only become increasingly volatile over time and his ability to stay on the court will be crucial to the Warriors’ chances of coming out of the Play-In.
Keegan Murray (Kings): One of the reasons the Kings haven’t continued from where they left off last season is because there’s been a sophomore slump within a sophomore slump. Despite averaging three more points per game, Murray is also taking three more shots as well while his three-point shooting has dipped from 41.1 per cent last season to 35.8 per cent this season. With the absences of Monk and Huerter, Murray needs to have a big night.
KEY TO VICTORY
In last season’s playoff battle, Sabonis averaged just 16.4 points while shooting less than 50 per cent from the field and 57 per cent from the free-throw line. If the Kings want to win this do-or-die battle, he must take the fight to Green. On the Warriors’ side of things, it comes down to Green, Thompson, and Wiggins being the best versions of themselves.
All signs from last year’s truly epic seven-game series and three games this season being decided by one point each suggest that this should be a classic. What could take away from it are the aforementioned injuries for the Kings, but ultimately the biggest key here may just come down to who has final possession of the basketball.
