This story was excerpted from Alex Stumpf’s Pirates Beat publication. To learn the complete publication, click on right here. And subscribe to get it usually in your inbox.
To state the painfully apparent, 2026 goes to be a pivotal season for Oneil Cruz.
He has the best offensive upside of any hitter on the 40-man roster, and he turned simply the second Pirate to log 20 residence runs and 35 stolen bases in a season, becoming a member of Barry Bonds. He led the Nationwide League in stolen bases. He grew defensively in middle discipline.
However you’d be hard-pressed to seek out many who had been happy with this season. His OPS dropped almost 100 factors to simply .676. His batting common completed proper on the Mendoza Line at .200. In keeping with Baseball Reference, he was price solely 0.3 WAR. He acknowledged on the finish of the season, “I do know I can do higher.”
The Pirates are relying on Cruz to not solely rebound in 2026, however to additionally take that subsequent further step. For him to take action, he’s going to want to enhance in a number of key areas.
There’s no solution to sugarcoat it: Cruz has not accomplished too nicely towards breaking and offspeed stuff in his profession. Discovering a solution to hit sliders, curveballs and changeups would go a good distance for his profession, and his .140 batting common towards breaking pitches wants to enhance. His anticipated stats this 12 months had been higher than in 2024, nonetheless — largely as a result of he reduce down on his whiff charges towards breaking balls whereas bettering his exit velocities.
As a substitute, the larger situation was towards fastballs, particularly because the 12 months progressed. In 2024, he hit .298 towards fastballs with a .496 slugging share. His 2025 numbers dropped (.243 batting common, .458 slug), however they had been closely carried by the primary two months of the season. In April and Could, he hit .284 towards fastballs with six residence runs and 7 doubles. From June by September, he hit .193 vs. fastballs with 5 residence runs, 4 doubles and a triple.
Groups took discover, and by September he was seeing fastballs at a better clip than he did all 12 months. It didn’t assist him escape of his hunch:
If a group desires to beat Cruz by throwing him nothing however junk, there’s solely a lot he can do. In the event that they’re difficult him with fastballs, he must win extra.
Cruz earned his status as a free swinger early in his profession, however he truly took a optimistic step right here in 2025. His chase price dropped from 31.7% to twenty-eight.1%, and is now mainly league common. The mindset has at all times been to drive pitchers into the strike zone, after which he can do injury.
The issue is you possibly can’t get a success with the bat in your shoulder.
Cruz’s swing price on pitches within the strike zone dropped this 12 months from 63% to 58.2%. That was one of many 20 largest drops amongst certified hitters this 12 months, and that in-zone swing price is the twelfth lowest in baseball. Cruz clearly goes to have a big strike zone to cowl due to his 6-foot-7 body, however he additionally took extra pitches within the coronary heart of the zone for a referred to as strike than some other Pirates hitter.
Cruz expressed a need midseason to develop into extra aggressive on the plate. The information suggests it might most likely assist.
3. Get the bat out in entrance
Cruz had a 1.947 slugging share on pulled fly balls final 12 months and a .593 slug when it went to the alternative discipline. Once more, he had one of many larger drops in pulled air ball price final 12 months, going from 17% to 13.2%.
Going by Baseball Savant’s information, the typical intercept level — the place the hitter makes contact with the ball — went from 9.1 inches in entrance of residence plate in 2024 to 7.5 inches in 2025. If you wish to get these pulled fly balls, that you must get the barrel out in entrance. It’s why although he had a roughly related fly ball price final 12 months, his slugging share on these fly balls dropped dramatically (from 1.250 in 2024 to .958 in 2025).
All of those factors are going to need to be labored on this winter, mechanically and ideologically. They’re additionally not too far fetched. He has the expertise to do some nice issues on the plate. The problem is realizing that and changing into the most effective model of himself.
