There is no such thing as a greater stage in monitor & discipline than the Olympic Video games. You’ll be able to turn out to be an all-time nice with out successful the Olympics, however till you do it, there will probably be a giant gap in your resume. An Olympic gold medal is the final word prize.
And with that in thoughts, we flip our eyes to the monitor & discipline competitors on the 2024 Olympics, set to start on August 2. The stakes are excessive for each athlete competing in Paris — that is the Olympics in spite of everything — however some athletes have much more on the road than others. For instance, Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce‘s legacy is safe whether or not she wins one other 100-meter gold or exits within the prelims. But when Noah Lyles exits the Video games with out a gold medal, he’ll be referred to as the man who gained every little thing in his profession besides the Olympics.
Under, I’ve listed the ten runners (no discipline occasions) with probably the most at stake at Paris 2024. A few of them have so much to achieve with a victory. Others have so much to lose with a defeat. These with probably the most at stake match each classes. We’ll begin with the athlete with the least at stake (although it’s nonetheless so much in comparison with each different Olympian) and rely all the way down to the athlete with probably the most at stake.
10) Religion Kipyegon, Kenya, 1500m/5,000m
Age: 30Previous Olympic finishes: 1500 prelims (2012); 1st 1500 (2016); 1st 1500 (2021)
Kipyegon turned the best feminine miler of all-time after successful the final Olympics. And since then, she’s crammed the one gap on her resume by breaking world information within the mile (4:07.64) and 1500 (3:49.11 final yr, then 3:49.04 this yr). How might she presumably be among the many athletes with probably the most at stake in Paris?
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As a result of Kipyegon has the chance to make Olympic historical past. A victory within the 1500m would make Kipyegon the primary feminine runner to three-peat on the Olympics (Polish hammer thrower Anita Włodarczyk is the one lady to do it in a discipline occasion). And may Kipyegon add gold within the 5000m, as she did finally yr’s World Championships, she’d turn out to be the primary lady to finish the 1500/5000 double, pushing her to 4 Olympic gold medals total. That might tie her with Jamaica’s Elaine Thompson-Herah for probably the most particular person Olympic golds by any feminine monitor & discipline athlete.
Kipyegon additionally has not been crushed in a 1500 since June 2021, so a defeat in Paris would qualify as a monumental upset.
9) Kenenisa Bekele, Ethiopia, marathon
Age: 42Previous Olympic finishes: 2nd 5,000, 1st 10,000 (2004); 1st 5,000, 2nd 10,000 (2008); 4th 10,000 (2012)
I do know what you’re considering. Bekele? The man who already has three Olympic golds? The man whom many imagine to already be the best distance runner in historical past? How can he have a lot at stake?
Let’s name this an upside decide. If Bekele bombs in Paris, his legacy gained’t change a lot. He’s had his moments within the marathon, however the picture of Bekele as all-conquering distance god was cast on the monitor and in cross nation. For many Bekele followers, the truth that he has even made it again to the Olympics at age 42 is already an enormous victory.
However take into consideration what occurs if Bekele wins in Paris. At 42 years, 58 days, Bekele would turn out to be the oldest Olympic gold medalist in monitor & discipline, breaking the file of Pat McDonald (42 years, 26 days), who gained an occasion (the 56-pound weight throw) that has been discontinued for greater than 100 years. Bekele can be the oldest runner to win gold by greater than three years — 2008 girls’s marathon champ Constantina Diță of Romania (38 years, 207 days) at present holds that file.
Bekele would additionally turn out to be the primary monitor & athlete to win particular person golds 20 years aside — simply the most important hole between golds (Carl Lewis, Al Oerter, and Ulrike Meyfarth all gained golds 12 years aside within the discipline occasions; no runner has ever gained particular person gold greater than 8 years aside). And he would do it by defeating the best marathoner of all time, Eliud Kipchoge, in the identical metropolis, Paris, the place Bekele gained his first international monitor title 21 years in the past.
A win by Bekele in Paris would additionally arguably rank as the best particular person accomplishment by an athlete over the age of 40 in any sport — not simply athletics. It might additionally cap one of many sport’s nice comeback tales and definitively finish any debate about whether or not Bekele is the best distance runner ever.
As for biggest feat by a 40+ athlete, if Bekele wins, let the controversy start. Sure, Tom Brady gained two Tremendous Bowls at 40+ however that’s why we put within the phrase “particular person.” Jack Nicklaus gained a Masters at 46, however whereas that was surprising, golf is just not practically as bodily demanding as marathon operating, which explains why seven males have gained the Masters previous the age of 40 and nobody has gained an Olympic gold in operating at that age.
That stated, the closest equal to a victory by Bekele on the Olympics could be one other golfer: Tiger Woods successful the 2019 Masters at age 43. Like Bekele, Woods was a singular expertise who was written off a number of occasions earlier than summoning one last second of greatness on the game’s largest stage.
(Stats above courtesy Invoice Mallon and his terrific Olympedia database.)
8) Lamecha Girma, Ethiopia, steeplechase
Age: 23Previous Olympic finishes: 2nd steeple (2021)
Proper now, Girma is the successor to Paul Tergat and Sileshi Sihine as Mr. Silver Medal. Throughout their adorned monitor careers, distance stars Tergat and Sihine mixed to win 9 silvers and two bronzes throughout the World Championships and Olympics, however by no means a gold. Girma made his international championship debut in 2019 by ending .01 behind steeple winner Conseslus Kipruto at Worlds, however that is still the closest he has come to victory, including silvers on the 2021 Olympics, 2022 Worlds, and 2023 Worlds in addition to silver within the flat 3,000 at 2022 World Indoors. One other silver in Paris would give Girma 5 total within the steeple — probably the most ever throughout any World/Olympic occasion with out tasting gold.
Girma is the world file holder within the steeple at 7:52.11 however has discovered himself blocked by two of the best kickers in historical past: first Kipruto, then Soufiane El Bakkali of Morocco. El Bakkali, who was injured earlier within the yr, has solely raced as soon as this season, laboring to an 8:09 victory in Marrakech on Might 19. Girma has solely run one steeple this yr himself, however he’s the world chief at 8:01. Along with his biggest rival probably susceptible, this can be Girma’s greatest probability for that elusive gold.
7) Jakob Ingebrigtsen, Norway, 1500m/5000m
Age: 23Previous Olympic finishes: 1st 1500 (2021)
Ought to Ingebrigtsen win each of his occasions in Paris, he’d write his identify alongside among the legends of the game. A victory within the 1500 would make him simply the second man to win that occasion twice, after Sebastian Coe (1980, 1984). And if he have been so as to add the 5000 title 4 days later, he’d be a part of Paavo Nurmi (1924) and Hicham El Guerrouj (2004) as the one males to finish the 1500/5000 double on the Olympics. He’d even be the primary man born outdoors of Africa to win the Olympic 5,000 title since Germany’s Dieter Baumann in 1992 (and Baumann later served a drug ban).
And for somebody who already has an Olympic gold, Ingebrigtsen nonetheless has so much to lose. Final yr, after a season by which he gained 12 of 13 races, set world information within the 2000m and a couple of miles, and gained a world title at 5,000 meters, Ingebrigtsen was requested whether or not he achieved most of what he needed.
His reply? No. He had not gained the race most essential to him, the World Championship 1500-meter last. When Josh Kerr upset him in Budapest, Ingebrigtsen defined that he was sick and Kerr was “simply the subsequent man.” However what occurs if Kerr beats him once more in Paris? Ingebrigtsen is getting into the Olympics within the form of his life, recent off a 3:26.73 pb in Monaco. How would Ingebrigtsen, who believes that nobody can beat him at his greatest, clarify that one?
A defeat within the 1500 would additionally make it 4 straight defeats in international 1500 finals — 2022 World Indoors, 2022 Worlds, 2023 Worlds, 2024 Olympics — and additional spotlight Ingebrigtsen’s biggest weak spot, an incapability to win championship 1500s when he’s not being towed alongside to a 3:28 as he was by Timothy Cheruiyot in Tokyo. On the flip facet, if Jakob front-runs a 3:27/3:28 in Paris and drops Kerr and the remainder of the sector en path to gold, it instantly turns into some of the iconic performances in distance operating historical past. Plus it might set him up for an unprecedented Olympic distance 3-peat in 2028. So sure, the stakes are fairly excessive.
6) Hellen Obiri, Kenya, marathon
Age: 34Previous Olympic finishes: eighth 1500 (2012); 2nd 5,000 (2016); 2nd 5,000, 4th 10,000 (2021)
Obiri has gained nearly every little thing there’s to win within the sport of operating. She is the one lady in historical past to have gained World Indoors, World Open air, and World XC. She has gained the New York Metropolis Marathon and Boston Marathon (twice). The one factor lacking from her resume is Olympic gold — although she has earned two silvers within the 5,000.
At 34, this can be Obiri’s last nice shot at gold, and given her success on the hills of Boston and New York, she is going to enter as a slight favourite. However to assert victory, Obiri should overcome one of many nice closers in marathon historical past: fellow Kenyan Peres Jepchirchir, who’s searching for to turn out to be the primary lady to win two Olympic marathon golds.
5) Rai Benjamin, USA, 400m hurdles
Age: 26Previous Olympic finishes: 2nd 400 hurdles (2021)
Benjamin is the one one of many Massive Three within the 400m hurdles to not have gained a world gold, and 2024 could also be his greatest probability to do it. Benjamin claimed silver behind Karsten Warholm on the 2019 Worlds and 2021 Olympics and one other silver behind Alison dos Santos on the 2022 Worlds. He slipped to bronze on the 2023 Worlds in Budapest however since then he has not misplaced, notching two massive head-to-head wins over each dos Santos and Warholm on the 2023 Pre Basic and 2024 Monaco. After combating by way of accidents the final two years, Benjamin is absolutely wholesome and enters Paris with three of the 4 quickest occasions on the earth this yr, together with a world-leading 46.46. That is his second. But when he will get beat by an all-time nice in Warholm, he doesn’t have as a lot to lose because the folks nonetheless to return on this checklist.
4) Keely Hodgkinson, Nice Britain, 800m
Age: 22Previous Olympic finishes: 2nd 800 (2021)
Hodgkinson could have one other Olympics in her prime in 2028, however is she going to have one other Olympics in her prime the place her largest rival (Athing Mu) will probably be watching from residence? And what if fellow Brit Phoebe Gill, who has gone from 2:01 to 1:57 this yr at age 17, retains enhancing?
Hodgkinson has been unimaginable in her three international finals (1:55.88, 1:56.38, 1:56.34), however towards Mu and Mary Moraa, that has solely been ok for 3 silver medals. Moraa will nonetheless be powerful to beat in Paris, however Hodgkinson beat her convincingly when the 2 raced at Prefontaine in Might. The Brit is not going to get a greater alternative to win gold. She additionally has extra to lose than Benjamin above — Benjamin has two fundamental rivals within the 400m hurdles and this yr Hodgkinson solely has one.
3) Grant Holloway, USA, 110m hurdles
Age: 26Previous Olympic finishes: 2nd (2021)
Holloway is already the best 60-meter hurdler of all time. That argument is over. The query is whether or not he can turn out to be the best hurdler ever within the 110s as nicely. Proper now, Allen Johnson, who owns 4 world titles, an Olympic gold, and probably the most sub-13.00s in historical past (11), occupies that place. Holloway wouldn’t go Johnson with a win in Paris (he’d have 4 international titles to Johnson’s 5), but it surely’s a needed step if he desires to go down as the best hurdler ever. And if Holloway can break the world file in Paris as nicely — one thing Johnson by no means did — the GOAT argument turns into very attention-grabbing contemplating Holloway already owns two of the highest 4 occasions in historical past.
Alternatively, Holloway has already misplaced one Olympic last as the favourite: he gained each race in the course of the 2021 season besides the Olympics, the place Jamaica’s Hansle Parchment beat him in Tokyo. Three years later, Holloway has once more gained each race thus far in 2024 — in addition to all 5 World Indoor/Outside finals in his profession.
So both Holloway takes an enormous step towards changing into the best of all time in his occasion or he goes down because the man who wins every little thing however was upset in two straight Olympics.
2) Sha’Carri Richardson, USA, 100m
Age: 24Previous Olympic finishes: none
You’ll be able to argue that Sha’Carri Richardson could be a bit of too excessive on this checklist. In fact it might be an enormous deal if Sha’Carri have been to win gold in Paris, however she is already an enormous star and probably the most well-known American monitor athlete. She’s going to nonetheless be a giant deal after Paris, win or lose.
She additionally has age on her facet. Richardson (24) is considerably youthful than her Jamaican rivals Shericka Jackson (30), Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce (37), and Elaine Thompson-Herah (32, who gained’t be in Paris). Sure, new skills, like 23-year-old Julien Alfred of St. Lucia, are arriving on the scene on a regular basis, however even when Sha’Carri fails to win in Paris, she is going to nonetheless have one other Olympics in her prime with an opportunity to win gold on residence soil at LA 2028.
However as massive as Sha’Carri is true now, with all these nationwide advert campaigns, Olympic gold hits totally different. The 100 meters is the most important occasion in monitor & discipline, and an American lady has not gained it since Gail Devers in 1996 (Marion Jones crossed the road first at Sydney 2000 however was later stripped of the title for doping). Ought to Sha’Carri win in Paris, she would obtain a ton of consideration and alternatives within the quick time period — NBC has already anointed her one in all its faces of the Video games — and lock in her legacy long run as a result of she’d perpetually be referred to as Olympic gold medalist Sha’Carri Richardson. She’d be the FloJo of the 2020s.
But when she doesn’t win, she’ll have to attend 4 extra years to show she will be able to win the final word prize.
1) Noah Lyles, USA, 100m/200m
Age: 27Previous Olympic finishes: third (2021)
Lyles is in an identical scenario to Holloway, becoming for 2 males who graduated highschool in the identical state (Virginia) and yr (2016). Like Holloway within the 110 hurdles, Lyles has owned the 200 meters, successful world titles in 2019, 2022, and 2023. He’s really been much more dominant than Holloway. Since turning professional in 2017, Lyles has misplaced simply two outside 200m races: the 2019 Rome Diamond League to Michael Norman and the 2021 Olympic last to Andre De Grasse and Kenny Bednarek. That’s it.
So the draw back for Lyles is similar to Holloway: if he loses in each occasions in Paris, he’ll go down as probably the greatest sprinters of his era however the man who couldn’t get it carried out on the game’s largest stage.
Lyles continues to be not near changing into the perfect ever in his occasion like Holloway. Even when Lyles breaks Usain Bolt‘s 19.19 world file within the 200, he’s not going to usurp Bolt’s standing because the 200m GOAT — that might give Lyles one world file, three world titles, and one Olympic gold in comparison with Bolt’s two world information, 4 world titles, and three Olympic golds.
But when Lyles can full the 100/200 double in Paris, he’d be a part of Bolt and Carl Lewis as the one males within the final 50 years to drag off that individual double on the Olympics. He’d be the primary American to win the game’s largest prize — the Olympic 100 meters — since Justin Gatlin in 2004. Lyles has at all times sought to transcend the game, and he has carried out all that he can to boost his profile, from documentaries to walk-ins to successful a pile of World Championship golds. However nothing resonates with most people just like the Olympics. Double (or triple with the 4×100 relay) gold in Paris would push Lyles into the mainstream and make him the world’s largest monitor star since Bolt. No stress.
Focus on: Which runners have probably the most to achieve/lose on the 2024 Olympics?
Honorable point out: Michael Norman was as soon as considered as the way forward for the 400m, changing into the 4th-fastest ever again in 2019 on the age of 21. He has a ton to achieve if he can win the Olympics and get his 400m profession again on monitor. He trains in LA and can be primed to be a star in 2028. However he has much less to lose, as proper now he isn’t among the many prime two favorites for 400m gold.
