Ever since Roki Sasaki’s agent, Joel Wolfe, met with the media on the Winter Conferences, there’s been hypothesis about which workforce could be one of the best match to land the prized right-hander, who was not too long ago posted by his Japanese workforce, the Chiba Lotte Marines.
As one government put it when requested if his workforce was attempting to land a gathering with Sasaki’s group: “Why wouldn’t everybody be attempting?”
With Sasaki reportedly assembly with groups as early as this week, it appeared like the correct time to take a look at the panorama and see which groups had been finest positioned to signal Sasaki, which is anticipated to occur between the beginning of the 2025 worldwide signing interval (Jan. 15) and the top of his 45-day posting interval (Jan. 23).
Is everybody in?As a result of Sasaki is beholden to the principles of the worldwide signing interval and bonus swimming pools, there’s a extra stage enjoying subject than for different free agent signings. It’s been made clear that the bonus Sasaki receives to signal won’t be the figuring out issue. Essentially the most any workforce may theoretically provide is the simply greater than $7.5 million that eight groups (the A’s, Brewers, Mariners, Marlins, Rays, Reds, Tigers, Twins) have of their ’25 swimming pools. The Giants have the smallest pool, at a bit greater than $4.1 million after they forfeited $1 million for signing free agent shortstop Willy Adames.
With the beginning of the ’25 signing interval lower than a month away, a very good quantity of these bonus {dollars} could already be earmarked for signings starting on Jan. 15, so releasing up cash for Sasaki may require groups to make some late modifications to their plans.
Including to the sentiments of potential parity are the feedback Wolfe made about Sasaki presumably preferring a small- or mid-market workforce. That would open the door to all 30 golf equipment, although there are some executives with smaller-revenue groups who consider the pool of actual candidates will ultimately shrink down largely to larger market golf equipment on the coast.
Actuality examine: Why wouldn’t some groups be in?OK, so if all 30 groups aren’t realistically going to be within the combine, why would some groups have an higher hand?
Market and income will matter when it comes to how a lot Sasaki will need to think about who can provide one of the best extension down the road. That’s not one thing that may be mentioned now, but it surely doesn’t take magical powers to know which groups have the monetary wherewithal to offer one of the best phrases a yr or two down the road.
Past the cash, there are the variables Wolfe talked about that come into play, together with the half a couple of smaller or mid-market being extra appropriate for Sasaki’s character and his curiosity in groups who do nicely working with pitchers. The chance to win additionally must be a part of the equation, proper?
One unknown variable lies inside Sasaki himself. Does he need to be “the person” or is he prepared, or does he choose, to be within the shadow of others? The make-up of groups’ rosters may come into play because of this.
What does the business assume will occur?MLB Pipeline is at the moment within the means of polling entrance workplaces for all 30 groups within the annual MLB Pipeline Govt Survey. As a part of the questionnaire, executives had been requested who they thought was the favourite to signal Sasaki. It must be famous that most of the responses got here earlier than the Wolfe media session, however two groups acquired almost the entire votes:
The Giants and Rangers every acquired one vote. These groups all examine among the doable bins. The Dodgers have a monitor document of spending large for elite expertise, and so they presumably would have the ability to take action to supply Sasaki an extension if his pitching interprets to MLB as most count on it’ll. They’ve additionally been in a position to get essentially the most out of pitchers, and there’s the truth that Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto would welcome Sasaki with open arms.
The Padres may be an excellent match for most of the similar causes, plus they’re extra within the “mid-market” bucket. It’s additionally been reported that Sasaki could be very shut with Yu Darvish, and it’s anticipated that he’ll play some position in convincing Sasaki to move to San Diego. Having Hideo Nomo within the group as a particular assistant would not harm, both.
The Rangers had been the workforce to initially signal Darvish again in 2012, and so they’ve had different successes with Japanese pitchers like Koji Uehara. It’s an enormous market, however not fairly the identical highlight, and this is able to be a state of affairs the place Sasaki would turn out to be the headliner within the rotation straight away.
The Giants don’t have the identical type of historical past with Japanese gamers, however the addition of Sasaki would assist them vault proper again into rivalry within the Nationwide League West and president of baseball operations Buster Posey not too long ago talked about how excited they’d be so as to add his expertise to the highest of the rotation.
What different groups are severe contenders?There’s one different workforce out west that may very well be a really intriguing “darkish horse” candidate: the Seattle Mariners. They positively match the smaller market invoice and have a workforce poised to compete for the American League West crown, with the addition of Sasaki more likely to make them clear favorites. The Mariners have finished spectacular work with their arms and would like to see Sasaki be part of younger hurlers Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryce Miller in what’s already maybe the deepest rotation in baseball. Maybe that might intensify talks a couple of Luis Castillo commerce that was already buzzing in and across the Winter Conferences. And Ichiro may very well be an excellent salesman.
Let’s not ignore groups not on the West Coast completely. There are some who assume the Cubs are severe gamers right here, and after buying Kyle Tucker from the Astros, they clearly are pondering they’ll contend within the broad open NL Central. Plus they at the moment have Shota Imanaga within the rotation and Seiya Suzuki within the lineup.
Within the AL, the Pink Sox are very severe about making a pitch to the Sasaki workforce. The primary promoting level could be the historical past of Japanese pitchers having success and constructive experiences enjoying in Boston: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Uehara and Junichi Tazawa. They’ve a formidable pitching growth program and it actually doesn’t harm when the overall supervisor, Craig Breslow, can communicate on to it (versus simply handing it off to “the specialists”). Breslow additionally personally scouted Sasaki for one in every of his begins in Japan in September.
Some see the Yankees and Mets as underdogs due to Wolfe’s feedback about smaller markets, however it might be a mistake to depend out both New York workforce. The Mets have created plenty of buzz following their 2024 playoff run by signing Juan Soto, and Kodai Senga’s profitable transition from the Japanese professional ranks to MLB with the membership may make their provide extra interesting. The Yankees — who even have a historical past of profitable with gamers from Japan (Hideki Matsui, Ichiro Suzuki and Masahiro Tanaka) — can level to a rotation the place Sasaki may be part of Gerrit Cole and Max Fried.
The Phillies and Blue Jays could seem to be they’re on the surface wanting in, however bear in mind when lists had been made about which groups had been within the working to signal Ohtani in 2017, the Angels by no means got here up. The Phillies present a profitable atmosphere and a stable pitching workers. They’ve by no means signed a Japanese participant, however they did reportedly make a severe run at Yamamoto, providing him extra money than the Dodgers did. Toronto could be much more of an extended shot given their lack of postseason success and pitching growth, however the Blue Jays are anticipated to make a robust play, maybe leaning on the dearth of media glare north of the border.
