It seems to be a three-horse race on the high of La Liga, as Actual Madrid, Barcelona and Atlético Madrid battle it out for the 2024-25 crown. How are both sides shaping up, and who’re the Opta supercomputer backing for achievement? We analyse the important thing statistics.
With simply over a 3rd of the La Liga season remaining, the 2024-25 title race is shaping as much as be a memorable one. Simply two factors separate league leaders Actual Madrid and third-place Barcelona, with Atlético Madrid sandwiched in between.
That is the closest title battle at this stage of a season in Spain’s high flight since 2013-14, when the identical three golf equipment had been stage on 57 factors on the high of the desk after 23 matches. That season ultimately noticed Atlético Madrid topped as champions, successful the title after ending three factors forward of each Madrid and Barcelona.
With one other three-way tussle for the title set to happen, we analyse the strengths and weaknesses of all three contenders and assess the most recent La Liga predictions by way of the Opta supercomputer.
Actual Madrid
Having already received a document tally of La Liga titles (36), Actual Madrid need to add another in 2024-25. It’s going properly thus far, with Carlo Ancelotti’s aspect high of the pile on 50 factors after 23 matchdays.
Nonetheless, with the chasing pack so shut behind, one defeat may see them drop to 3rd and be overtaken by each metropolis rivals Atlético and arch enemies Barcelona. That state of affairs has come about after back-to-back winless video games, first a shock 1-0 defeat at Espanyol and second a house draw with Atlético final weekend.
Something lower than a win this weekend away at Osasuna would imply that they’d collected fewer than three factors over a three-game interval in La Liga for the primary time since November 2020. That may represent a mini disaster.
Ancelotti’s aspect have points in defence, with long-term accidents to Dani Carvajal and Éder Militão compounded by newer issues for David Alaba, Antonio Rüdiger and Lucas Vázquez, although Ancelotti mentioned on Friday that these three gamers needs to be again subsequent week.
Final season, Actual Madrid received the title having scored probably the most objectives and conceded the fewest – classes that they don’t seem like topping this time round. Not one of the final seven Spanish champions have didn’t high a minimum of a type of metrics of their title-winning season, however Madrid had been the final to take action in 2016-17 (second greatest assault, fourth greatest defence).
They’ve struggled to switch Toni Kroos in midfield following his retirement on the finish of final season. Dani Ceballos is starting to regulate video games extra, however Aurélien Tchouaméni struggled to fill the German’s boots earlier this season.
One optimistic is that Kylian Mbappé has begun to seek out his toes in Spain after a sluggish begin. The French ahead failed to attain in his first three La Liga appearances however has been concerned in 18 objectives in his final 18 video games (16 objectives, 2 assists).
Discovering a technique to play that fits Mbappé has seemingly led to Jude Bellingham’s attacking output lowering, nevertheless. His minutes-per-goal fee in La Liga has practically halved in comparison with final season (228 minutes in 2024-25 vs 122 minutes in 2023-24), whereas Vinícius Júnior has additionally struggled to make as a lot of an affect in video games at instances.
Barcelona
Barcelona began life below Hansi Flick on fireplace. With 11 wins of their opening 12 La Liga matches of 2024-25, they opened up a nine-point lead on the high of the desk, albeit having performed a sport greater than rivals Actual Madrid on the time.
A kind of victories got here in an astonishing show of dominance on the Bernabéu, once they hammered their rivals 4-0 in El Clásico and ended Madrid’s unbeaten run within the league at 42 video games, making certain they didn’t equal Barça’s competitors document from 2018.
Though they’ve received their final three matches – in opposition to bottom-half sides Valencia, Sevilla and Alavés – an eight-game hunch in kind between mid-November and mid-January meant they fell under Madrid and Atlético within the desk. These eight video games noticed them gather simply six factors total (W1 D3 L4) and has now left them with fewer factors total after 23 video games this season (48) than final time period (50) and 2022-23 (59).
Barcelona completed 10 factors behind Madrid final season, they usually have largely put their religion in younger gamers to convey success this time period. Solely Valencia (24 years, 278 days) have averaged a youthful beginning XI than them (24y 323d) in La Liga this season, and that’s regardless of 36-year-old Robert Lewandowski main their line.
The Polish striker has been in nice kind thus far in 2024-25, topping the La Liga scoring charts with 19 objectives in 22 video games, whereas he’s been supported by 13-goal Raphinha and the wonderful teenager Lamine Yamal, who’s the one participant within the competitors to achieve double figures for assists (10).
They’re the league’s main scorers with 64 objectives, which is probably the most by a crew at this stage of a season since Actual Madrid’s 66 objectives in 23 video games again in 2015-16.
Barcelona nonetheless need to play each of their title rivals this season, whereas the 2 Madrid sides have already performed one another twice (each ending 1-1). This arguably signifies that the title continues to be in Barça’s fingers, and Flick has actually had the measure of Actual Madrid thus far this season. On high of the 4-0 league win, Barcelona additionally loved a 5-2 win within the Supercopa de España earlier this yr regardless of having goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny despatched off with 34 minutes remaining.
Atlético Madrid
Following their 1-1 draw with rivals Actual Madrid on Matchday 23, Atlético sit a degree behind them within the desk. Their 49 factors are probably the most they’ve collected at this stage of a league season since they final received the title in 2020-21 (55), however this aspect is probably the most skilled of the title contenders.
Solely Rayo Vallecano (29y 75d) and Mallorca (28y 328d) have averaged an older beginning XI than Atlético (28y 246d) this season. Their groups have been a yr and a half older on common than Actual’s (27y 52d) and practically 4 years older than Barcelona’s (24y 323d).
Having surpassed 500 La Liga video games answerable for Atlético with their 2-0 win over Mallorca on 1 February, coach Diego Simeone turned simply the ninth supervisor in historical past to realize this feat. His tenure on the membership has seen them constantly battle Barcelona and Actual Madrid, with Atlético accumulating the third-most factors (1,031) – a tally that’s 240 greater than the following most (Sevilla, 791).
Atlético have develop into probably the most defensively sound aspect within the Spanish high flight in Simeone’s spell. No crew have conceded fewer objectives per sport on common (0.77), whereas they’ve saved a clear sheet in practically half of his matches in cost (48%), which is once more the best tally within the competitors.
It subsequently comes as no shock that they’re La Liga’s most spectacular defensive aspect this season, too. Atlético have conceded the fewest objectives (15), saved the joint-most clear sheets (11, alongside Actual Sociedad) and have given up the bottom high quality photographs to opponents (20.3 xG confronted).
Simeone has saved his squad tight this season, utilizing simply 24 gamers in La Liga thus far – solely Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano (23) have used fewer. He’s made the fourth-most modifications to his beginning XI (76) throughout the 23 video games, although, making certain that his gamers are saved recent. Ending within the high eight of the Champions League league part has additionally helped them keep away from two further video games in Europe – in contrast to Madrid.
Undoubtedly their hardest sport remaining in 2024-25 is the go to of Barcelona to the Metropolitano Stadium in March on the ultimate matchday earlier than the worldwide break. However that is Atlético’s fortress. They’re the one unbeaten dwelling aspect remaining in La Liga this season and have collected probably the most factors in dwelling video games thus far (30).
The Opta Supercomputer Predictions
The Opta supercomputer sees Actual Madrid win the La Liga title in additional than half of its present season projections. Throughout the ten,000 season simulations performed out as we speak, Madrid win La Liga 52.0% of the time. In spite of everything, they’re high and… properly… that is Actual Madrid; they all the time appear to discover a technique to win issues.
It’s completely a three-horse race for the 2024-25 title, although. Barcelona win it in 26.9% of simulations, whereas Atlético Madrid win 20.8% of the time.
There’s very a lot an outdoor likelihood of the title going elsewhere, however that solely occurred in 29 of the ten,000 simulations. Athletic Membership had been the victors on 28 of these, with Villarreal successful it simply as soon as.
The final time a crew aside from Barcelona, Actual Madrid or Atlético Madrid received La Liga was again in 2003-04 when Valencia had been topped as champions. Athletic Membership haven’t received La Liga since 1983-84, whereas Villarreal have by no means been champions – coming closest in 2012-13 once they completed as runners-up. In all probability, it’ll in all probability keep that approach.
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