Why Bills vs. Chiefs is about which team will be less self-destructive

Essentially the most anticipated matchup of the NFL Divisional Spherical weekend is the most recent installment of the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs-Buffalo Payments rivalry. For the primary time since 2020, the Payments would be the dwelling crew and Patrick Mahomes will likely be confronted with a highway playoff ambiance for the primary time in his profession.

Once we final noticed these groups sq. off within the postseason two years in the past, it was one of many best video games in NFL historical past, received by Kansas Metropolis in a 42-36 additional time basic. Past the 1,000 yards of offense and quarterbacking masterclasses by Mahomes and Josh Allen, the standard of play was remarkably clear — there have been no turnovers and solely 4 accepted penalties.

This Sunday’s showdown presents a special dynamic from earlier playoff conferences. The 2023 editions of Kansas Metropolis and Buffalo have been something however well-oiled machines. Their similar, division-winning 11-6 information include a number of season-long struggles which have largely been self-inflicted.

Turnovers

The Chiefs and Payments are the one remaining playoff groups ranked top-10 in turnovers dedicated and in price of offensive drives ending in a turnover. The large distinction? Whereas each groups have turned it over 28 instances, the Chiefs had a turnover margin of -11 in comparison with Buffalo’s +2. Kansas Metropolis has solely managed a constructive turnover differential twice all season. Patrick Mahomes has as many turnovers by himself (17) because the in any other case excellent Chiefs protection has compelled.

Kansas Metropolis isn’t any stranger to being its personal worst enemy; final season the Chiefs have been simply the eighth crew to win a Tremendous Bowl regardless of a damaging turnover margin (-3) within the common season. You must return to the 1983 Raiders for the final time an eventual Tremendous Bowl champion had a turnover margin worse than -10. They’re the one Divisional Spherical crew left with damaging internet Anticipated Factors Added (EPA) from turnovers.

You would possibly discover the Payments are top-of-the-line groups within the NFL in internet EPA from turnovers, though Josh Allen leads the league in turnovers (22) and is 2nd in interceptions thrown (18). As talked about earlier, the Payments protection has been excellent at forcing turnovers, however the stats on offense illustrate that not all turnovers are weighted equally. Whereas Allen has been susceptible to ill-advised choices and sloppy errors, his interceptions haven’t been as pricey in comparison with his friends.

This isn’t to say that Buffalo hasn’t misplaced video games or practically misplaced them resulting from sloppiness. Of their 5 video games by which they have been -2 or worse in turnover margin, the Payments posted a 2-3 document, all in opposition to non-playoff opposition. Even throughout their present six-game profitable streak, they eked out a 24-22 win in opposition to the Easton Stick-led Los Angeles Chargers after committing three turnovers, all leading to Charger factors.

Drops

You might need heard a factor or two in regards to the Chiefs pass-catchers treating the soccer prefer it’s freshly erupted magma.

The Chiefs lead the NFL in drops and drop price, and whereas Kadarius Toney had two high-profile drops flip into interceptions, Travis Kelce (7) and rookie Rashee Rice (8) had essentially the most drops amongst Chiefs gamers (in line with Professional Soccer Reference).

Payments gamers are usually not proof against the dropsies, both. They quietly rank Seventh in complete drops (30) and tied for ninth in drop price (5.2%). In opposition to the Denver Broncos, the Payments have been dinged for 4 drops, considered one of which changed into an interception.

James Cook dinner is just not solely among the many league-leaders in fumbles amongst working backs, he’s additionally dropped two potential touchdowns.

Penalties

Buffalo had the Seventh-most accepted penalties within the common season. Of their final loss versus the Philadelphia Eagles, the Payments have been flagged 11 instances for 80 yards, together with consecutive false begins that took them from subject purpose vary to punting.

It’s not all the time in regards to the amount, although. Along with the drops versus Denver, a go interference penalty put the Broncos in game-winning subject purpose vary, and the notorious 12 males on the sphere negated a missed kick by Wil Lutz, who made no mistake on the retry.

In the meantime, the Chiefs are roughly league-average with 96 accepted penalties. Simply think about how significantly better these numbers would look if not for beginning proper deal with Jawaan Taylor, who’s the NFL’s most penalized participant by a mile, and essentially the most penalized in eight years. Final week in opposition to the Miami Dolphins, Taylor was dinged for an unlawful block within the again that negated a Rashee Rice landing.

In fact, the Payments vs. Chiefs common season conflict in Week 14 might’ve had a special end result if not for Kadarius Toney’s offside heard ‘around the world.

Toney will certainly not play a job in Sunday’s sport, as he’s been dominated out with hip and ankle accidents.

It’s cliché to say that whichever crew makes fewer errors will win, nevertheless it couldn’t be more true for this battle of mistake-prone Tremendous Bowl contenders.