Why teams with good scouting will win the 2024 NFL Draft – even more than in previous years

The title of this submit could really feel like a no brainer, in spite of everything, doesn’t good scouting all the time win the draft?

After all it does. However the 2024 NFL draft could current a really particular set of circumstances that make it much more vital to get the scouting proper, particularly for groups drafting within the second half of every spherical.

First, the Cowboys have two key positions of want going into the draft, offensive line and linebacker, and they’re in all probability going to draft a operating again within the High 100 as effectively.
Second, and maybe uniquely amongst latest drafts, the highest guys at these three positions are tightly clustered: There’s an unusually excessive variety of first-round offensive linemen, the highest linebackers appear to be second-round guys, and the highest operating backs will possible go from the mid-second to the mid-third.

You’d suppose that with wants as clearly outlined as that, and with expertise as neatly clustered as it’s, there can be not more than a handful of prospects thought of as targets for the Cowboys. However that’s not the case.

In any respect.

Two weeks in the past I checked out 40 totally different mock drafts to see whether or not a number of consensus prospects would have emerged as targets for the Cowboys within the first spherical of the 2024 NFL Draft. However no such luck, as 12 totally different gamers have been mocked to the Cowboys, together with a staggering eight totally different offensive linemen!

What these mocks spotlight is that past maybe the highest one or two guys, there isn’t a consensus how the draft prospects rank after that.

OFFENSIVE LINE

On common, about 5 to 6 offensive linemen get picked within the first spherical, and it’ll simply be extra this yr. Which suggests the Cowboys at No. 24 will possible be in play for the sixth, seventh, or eighth-best offensive lineman within the draft. However which participant is that?

It’s one factor if the individuals placing collectively mock drafts can’t agree on a rating for every place, but it surely’s no totally different once you take a look at the rankings some draft analysts are proposing. I regarded on the prime 100 gamers in Dane Brugler’s 2024 NFL Draft Information, the PFF huge board, Eric Edholm’s NFL.com Rating, Rob Rang’s huge board at Foxsports, in addition to Danny Kelly’s rating (prime 85 solely) as discovered on The Ringer. Right here’s how they rank the highest 13 offensive linemen:

The 5 sources don’t even agree on who the perfect sort out is on this yr’s class, and it will get even murkier after that. The variability in these totally different draft boards is strictly why scouting is so vital this yr.

Take the case of Olu Fashanu. Danny Kelly has him ranked as the highest sort out within the draft, even forward of Joe Alt. Rob Rang has him ranked seventh total, which might put Fashanu inside attain of the Cowboys. Within the unlikely occasion Fashanu ought to fall all the way in which to #24, ought to the Cowboys choose the perfect sort out within the draft (in line with Kelly) and snort all the way in which to a Tremendous Bowl title, or ought to they accept the seventh-best sort out within the draft (in line with Rang), who won’t even be the perfect sort out on the workforce?

Or take the 2 prime facilities on this draft, Jackson Powers-Johnson and Graham Barton. Which one is the higher prospect? Brugler, Edholm and Kelly have Barton forward of Powers-Johnson, PFF and Rang see Powers-Johnson as the higher prospect. If you would like the perfect heart on this draft, you’d higher be sure you know which is which.

Each circumstances illustrate how little settlement there may be this yr on the expertise. Maybe it’s as a result of the gamers are very intently bunched, maybe it’s as a result of the gamers are a harder group to rank than regular. And with the linemen so tightly bunched, possibly the rankings are a distinction with out a distinction anyway.

And on this surroundings with a whole lot of ambiguity, groups with good scouting will prosper.

In a draft the place there’s a very actual threat of drafting a man at No. 24 who’s a third-round expertise at finest, the power to appropriately grade gamers is essential, particularly when contemplating that roughly half the gamers picked within the first spherical won’t ever do something noteworthy within the NFL, as then-Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff defined some time again.

“Based on our most up-to-date statistics that we drew on the primary spherical, it’s lower than 60 % of these gamers which are beginning,” Dimitroff stated. “I believe it might have are available in at 56 %. So level being it’s not an actual science, we all know that. There are such a lot of different issues which are concerned in it. Step one is discovering out whether or not that participant has the adept expertise on the sphere, in fact. Many different areas that we’re wanting into to ensure they’re suits within the group. [Do] they’ve the psychological capability, they’ve the character capability, and the workforce component {that a} workforce is on the lookout for? Once more, you’d higher have a plan for the fellows who’re somewhat bit wayward of their strategy. That’s all the time been a giant dialogue level as effectively.”

LINEBACKERS

On to the linebackers, the place our assortment of 5 draft specialists supply us three totally different gamers because the “finest linebacker” within the draft.

The Cowboys made certain to cowl their bases by inviting the trio of Edgerrin Cooper, Payton Wilson, and Junior Colson for official pre-draft visits, after which threw in Trevin Wallace simply in case.

There’s a superb probability the Cowboys draft a linebacker within the second spherical. However which one? I certain hope the Cowboys have all of it found out on their very own huge board.

RUNNING BACKS

Do the 5 huge boards we’re immediately present extra readability at operating again?

The reply right here is “probably not,” however once more the Cowboys did their due diligence by inviting Trey Benson, Jonathon Brooks, Braelon Allen, and Bucky Irving for official pre-draft visits. Did these visits present extra readability on the place every operating again ranks?

Ultimately, as a lot as we attempt to objectively assess the draft prospects main as much as the draft, all of us take heed to individuals we belief (roughly) to kind our personal opinions on these prospects. And if even these specialists don’t agree, the place does that go away us?

Finally, there is just one draft board that counts, and that’s the one the Cowboys are constructing. We are able to solely hope that their scouts did a superb job in placing it collectively, and that they are going to keep on with it on draft day. And with somewhat little bit of luck, they could simply discover the appropriate guys, even when we could not all agree with their choices at first.

As a result of one of many unwanted side effects of the totally different assessments outlined right here is that no matter which participant the Cowboys choose, any person will inevitably name it a attain. However that’s a narrative for a distinct day.