World Cup Run-Up: Messi's future, Pochettino's problems, and more

Welcome again to our month-to-month World Cup lookahead, the place we study the most important speaking factors referring to the 2026 World Cup in the US, Canada, and Mexico. Which groups and gamers are trending up or down, what’s new with the co-hosts, and the way is the expanded 48-team event shaping up? T-minus 9 months, the countdown continues.

Opening whistle: Will he or will not he? 🤔

Name it naivety, however I’ve at all times simply assumed that Lionel Messi would take part within the 2026 World Cup. Why would not he run it again yet another time with the reigning champion?

Messi performed his last World Cup qualifier – and his final aggressive dwelling sport for Argentina – in an emotional Sept. 4 win over Venezuela. He scored twice, due to course he did. Enterprise as normal, proper? Possibly not. After the sport, Messi solid doubt on his worldwide future, saying it was “logical” that he would not take part in subsequent summer time’s event on account of his age.

“However right here I’m – excited, eager to play, however like I’ve at all times mentioned, I am going day-to-day, sport by sport,” the Argentine hero instructed reporters, in response to Felipe Cardenas of The Athletic. “This 12 months we had so many matches, one after one other. I simply got here off a break for a couple of days, then had one other setback.”

Messi added: “Now it is about taking it in the future at a time, attempting to really feel good, and above all being trustworthy with myself. After I really feel good, I take pleasure in it. After I do not, actually, I undergo, and I would relatively not be there. So we’ll see.”

He can nonetheless conjure magical moments out of skinny air, however, at 38, the seams are coming into focus. Messi’s physique is displaying indicators of the wear and tear and tear that comes with getting incessantly kicked by defenders for roughly twenty years. He is lacking extra video games than ever with varied muscle illnesses and is extra stationary off the ball than at any level in his profession.

The tip of that iconic profession is not far-off. Really reckoning with and accepting that could be a complete different matter. Based mostly on his pragmatic feedback, it will be tougher for us to course of Messi’s eventual retirement than will probably be for him.

North American pocket book 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇲🇽

What is the newest with the three co-hosts?

Christian Pulisic needed to come out and dispel experiences of a fractured relationship with head coach Mauricio Pochettino. In the meantime, former USMNT gamers are publicly questioning the dedication of present stars, prompting considered one of them, Tim Weah, to reply by saying the ex-players are “evil.” All very regular stuff. On the sector, the People lastly snapped a seven-game winless skid towards groups ranked in FIFA’s prime 25.

However even that was tempered by the truth that their 2-0 victory earlier this week got here towards a second-string Japan lineup. Pochettino can a minimum of take some much-needed positives from the win, significantly with how comfy his facet seemed utilizing a 3-4-2-1 formation. However the vibes round this group nonetheless aren’t nice, and time is operating out for Pochettino to iron out the kinks forward of subsequent summer time’s large present. What’s his finest XI? Who ought to be the beginning No. 9? Solutions to those basic questions are missing.

This might all change shortly, however the feeling inside the Canadian camp proper now’s precisely the other of the USMNT. Jesse Marsch’s group went to Europe and beat Romania and Wales in fast succession, coming away with a pair of unpolluted sheets within the course of.

Jonathan David, off to a strong begin at membership stage with Juventus, continues to enhance each time he steps on the pitch. Tajon Buchanan seems to have put his severe leg harm behind him. Ali Ahmed is making a giant push for a beginning spot. Niko Sigur appears to be like comfy in all places on the sector. Derek Cornelius is scoring Messi-esque free-kicks. Better of all, captain Alphonso Davies is again in coaching with Bayern Munich and will return from his ACL tear in October. There’s an actual purpose for optimism for Canadian followers.

We touched on this in August, however the switch window can have a big impact on any nationwide group’s World Cup outlook. We sometimes consider that when it comes to the gamers who make strikes to new golf equipment, however what in regards to the ones who do not?

Christopher Nkunku’s arrival at AC Milan threatened to cut back Santiago Gimenez’s enjoying time, fueling hypothesis that the Mexican striker would search a transfer to a extra favorable state of affairs elsewhere. Nevertheless, a possible change to Roma fell by, sparking outrage from Gimenez’s father and leaving many questions on his utilization this season below Massimiliano Allegri. If Gimenez spends most of his time on the bench, it will be to the detriment of Mexico, which might’t afford to have its second-best goalscorer attempting to shake off rust at subsequent summer time’s event.

Rising and falling 📈📉

Which groups, gamers, and coaches have been trending up or down?

Mbappe’s revenge tour 📈

Regardless of scoring loads of targets, Kylian Mbappe did not benefit from the smoothest transition in his first season at Actual Madrid. Simply three matches into his second marketing campaign, and he already appears to be like extra comfy. The 26-year-old has scored three targets in as many La Liga video games to begin the season, and that robust type has carried over to the nationwide group. Mbappe led France to a pair of victories in the course of the current worldwide window, highlighted by a luxurious objective towards Ukraine during which he turned €66-million PSG defender Illia Zabarnyi inside out.

He adopted that up with a penalty towards Iceland, which pushed Mbappe previous icon Thierry Henry for second on the French males’s group’s all-time scoring listing. He is solely 5 tallies behind chief Olivier Giroud. At this level, it is a matter of when. There’s an actual chance that Mbappe might set that nationwide scoring report at subsequent summer time’s World Cup. For all his accolades – which embody a World Cup title and a hat-trick within the World Cup last – Mbappe has, at instances, been overshadowed during the last 12 months by the likes of Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, and compatriot Ousmane Dembele. However when he is at his finest, I nonetheless assume he is the one most dominant participant within the sport. Subsequent summer time’s event is the right place to make historical past and remind those that’ve possibly forgotten how singularly nice he might be.

African heavyweights 📉

Nigeria and Cameroon, two of probably the most storied and profitable nations in African soccer historical past, are in deep trouble as CAF qualifying nears its conclusion. Solely the 9 group winners from the present spherical of African qualifying are assured a World Cup spot, with the 4 finest second-place finishers getting into a mini-tournament to resolve who will symbolize the continent within the inter-confederation playoffs. If qualifying ended at the moment, Nigeria would not meet both criterion, regardless of fielding one of the gifted groups in Africa. With two matches left, the Tremendous Eagles sit in a dispiriting third place of their group behind South Africa and Benin. It is wanting grim.

In the meantime, the Indomitable Lions of Cameroon could possibly be on the fallacious finish of one of many nice Cinderella tales of this qualifying cycle. A 1-0 loss to group chief Cape Verde pushed the group additional behind the tiny island nation. Goalkeeper Andre Onana, heading to Trabzonspor after a disastrous Manchester United spell that is altered the trajectory of his profession, got here below fireplace once more, this time for staying rooted to his line on Cape Verde’s profitable objective. The Blue Sharks, one win away from a historic qualification, are now not a complete unknown after reaching the AFCON quarterfinals two years in the past, however this may be their biggest footballing accomplishment. The followers comprehend it, too. Simply hearken to this roar:

Gattuso’s imprint 📈

Italian soccer has lengthy been characterised as sluggish, stale, and boring. Serie A and the Azzurri nonetheless wrestle with these Catenaccio-inspired stereotypes, however Gennaro Gattuso is doing his damndest to shed them multi functional shot. Italy, seeking to keep away from a cataclysmic occasion of lacking a 3rd successive World Cup, earned a chaotic 5-4 victory in a must-win match towards Israel. After two personal targets, a late blown lead, and a stoppage-time winner, the final scene of the competition was Gattuso getting right into a heated argument with an Israeli participant following the ultimate whistle. It was all extraordinarily on model for the explosive ex-midfielder.

That recipe clearly is not sustainable for long-term success. Italy’s finest groups have at all times been defensively stout. Simply take a look at the 2006 World Cup champions, who conceded solely twice – an personal objective and a penalty. This present squad additionally would not have the firepower up entrance to persistently outscore defensive points. However at this level, none of that issues. The bar is so low that merely qualifying, by any means obligatory, might be successful for Gattuso. That doubtless means going by one other dramatic set of playoff matches. On the very least, it will not be boring.

Nagelsmann’s status 📉

Germany’s participation within the World Cup has at all times been a formality. The group, fairly actually, by no means fails to qualify for the occasion, lacking solely two editions (Germany did not enter the inaugural competitors in 1930 and was barred from getting into in 1950). However Julian Nagelsmann has work to do to keep away from disaster. Germany misplaced a World Cup qualifier away from dwelling for the primary time in historical past final week, falling to Slovakia. It adopted that up with a sluggish and unconvincing dwelling win over Northern Eire, leaving the group third in its qualifying group after two video games.

Germany ought to be effective. A pair of remaining matches towards minnows Luxembourg will virtually actually yield six factors and a wholesome increase to the objective distinction, which serves as the primary tiebreaker. Nevertheless, Nagelsmann, a new-age coach whose once-burgeoning status suffered a setback at Bayern Munich earlier than he transitioned into worldwide administration, is below intense stress as he makes an attempt to combine the nation’s rising stars with its established skills.

Fast free-kicks 💥

What else is catching the attention?

The CR7 dilemma: At this stage in his vaunted profession, Cristiano Ronaldo’s suitability as the first center-forward for a nation with real hopes of profitable the World Cup is an open query. Now 40, Ronaldo is clearly previous his prime, however he’ll be Portugal’s No. 9 virtually by default. Roberto Martinez clearly nonetheless depends on him, and, for all their unimaginable attacking expertise in vast areas, Portugal lacks one other striker who can thrive by the center. Though Goncalo Ramos might’ve been that man, his transfer to PSG has stagnated his development. Ronaldo is displaying in qualifying that he can nonetheless discover the online, however overreliance on the icon subsequent summer time might sink Portugal if he struggles the identical manner he did at Euro 2024.

It is coming dwelling: Thomas Tuchel picked up probably the most convincing results of his tenure as England supervisor in the course of the current worldwide window, because the Three Lions strolled into Belgrade, a notoriously tough place to play, and routed Serbia 5-0. Elliot Anderson and Noni Madueke took full benefit of injury-induced absences, making robust circumstances for extra distinguished roles. Tuchel, below growing stress following the group’s turgid performances in his first 5 matches, additionally silenced some critics – for now. Whether or not the German supervisor can really get England excessive at a serious event after his predecessor, Gareth Southgate, got here agonizingly shut stays to be seen. Nonetheless, a minimum of now there’s purpose for perception.

Inadvertent disruption: Alexander Isak’s extended summer time switch saga had an unintended consequence. Though the striker ultimately – mercifully – acquired his transfer to Liverpool, his refusal to play for Newcastle meant he had zero minutes below his belt this season and thus wasn’t totally match for Sweden’s current World Cup qualifiers. The Swedes promptly tied Slovenia and misplaced to Kosovo, with Isak solely coming off the bench for lower than 20 minutes within the latter contest. Sweden now finds itself in a precarious place in Group B of UEFA qualifying, with two video games towards unbeaten Switzerland nonetheless to come back. Isak wants to search out his ft shortly at Liverpool earlier than the subsequent worldwide break in October.

No striker, no downside: Spain lacks a famous person striker, but it surely nonetheless appears to be like like the most effective group on the earth. Mikel Oyarzabal is not a prototypical No. 9 regardless of beginning La Roja’s final 5 matches, and captain Alvaro Morata may discover alternatives restricted after his switch to Como. And it might not matter in any respect. Spain gained its final two matches, combining for a 9-0 scoreline over Bulgaria and Turkey. Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams are wizards on the wings, Pedri is a Rolls-Royce in midfield, and Mikel Merino, who scored a hat-trick towards Turkey, one way or the other continues to be the most effective auxiliary striker round.

Who’s in, who’s out? 🎟️

Eighteen of the 48 doable nations have booked their tickets to the 2026 World Cup, with Canada, Mexico, and the US robotically included as co-hosts. For an in depth breakdown of how every group has certified up to now, faucet right here.

For present World Cup qualifying standings, faucet right here.

Betting odds 🤑

Which groups are favored to win the event?

⚽️ Try the total World Cup odds on ESPN BET and theScore Wager right here

Key dates forward 🗓️

Oct. 6-14: World Cup qualifyingNov. 10-18: World Cup qualifyingDec. 5, 2025: World Cup drawMarch 23-31, 2026: Closing World Cup qualifying matchesJune 1-9, 2026: Pre-tournament pleasant matchesJune 11, 2026: World Cup opening match