World Cup Run-Up: Playoff party, Ronaldo in trouble, Italy in hell

Our month-to-month World Cup lookahead examines the massive speaking factors regarding subsequent summer time’s event. Who’s trending up or down; what is the newest on co-hosts Canada, Mexico, and the U.S.; and the way is the 48-team occasion shaping up? At T-minus seven months, the countdown continues.

Playoff predictions 🔮

Solely six World Cup locations stay up for grabs after a chaotic and thrilling November worldwide window. They will be determined by intercontinental and European playoffs in March 2026, and the draw for every was made Thursday, outlining the paths to North America for the remaining hopefuls.

Learn extra: Intercontinental playoffs | European playoffs

Within the intercontinental playoffs, it is robust to look previous Iraq and DR Congo, the 2 top-seeded nations that solely have to win one sport apiece to qualify for the World Cup. Iraq must beat both Bolivia or Suriname, whereas DR Congo, recent off eliminating Nigeria from African qualifying, wants a victory over New Caledonia or Jamaica. An anticipated assembly with the Reggae Boyz could be essentially the most intriguing – and tough – fixture. Nevertheless, DR Congo’s Premier League-heavy squad will, in concept, have Yoane Wissa again from damage come March and has all of the instruments to deal with enterprise. Jamaica’s one thing of a wild card after supervisor Steve McClaren stepped down this week. This would not be the primary time a brand new supervisor reinvigorated a nationwide group on the final minute, however I am going to put my religion within the extra steady Congo aspect.

Europe, in the meantime, will garner many of the international consideration come March. Italy, the four-time champion, is liable to lacking a 3rd consecutive World Cup, which is end-of-days-type stuff (we mentioned that after the Italians missed out in 2018 and 2022, however a trifecta could be an astonishing new low).

If nothing else, Italy’s recurring playoff nightmare will not contain acquainted faces; the Azzurri averted Sweden and North Macedonia within the draw, the groups that knocked them out at this stage within the final two cycles.

Regardless of fielding a group that’s disturbingly bereft of top-tier expertise, Gennaro Gattuso’s squad ought to have sufficient to carry off Northern Eire after which beat considered one of Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina. A possible playoff ultimate in Wales could be extraordinarily difficult, although. The Azzurri lack a confirmed, constant goalscorer, and if Sandro Tonali is not accessible or at his finest, the midfield rapidly turns into underwhelming. Good luck, Rino.

Sweden, now coached by Graham Potter, had a disastrous qualifying marketing campaign and has to beat Ukraine after which considered one of Poland or Albania to make the World Cup. Regardless of all latest proof on the contrary, I nonetheless assume Sweden will get it completed. Quite a bit can change between now and March. Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres might be on a tear for his or her golf equipment by the point these playoffs roll round, and Dejan Kulusevski must be again from his damage layoff. All else being comparatively equal, I am going to aspect with pure expertise.

Turkey’s dynamic duo of Arda Guler and Kenan Yildiz ought to lead the group to victory in Path C, regardless of the unrest within the nation’s home league. Once more, expertise. Lastly, in Path D, I am so enchanted by Troy Parrott and Eire – extra on that under – that I am taking the Irish over Denmark. That is clearly some recency bias, and it is foolish to recommend momentum from a November win can carry over to March, however the spirit Eire confirmed simply to get so far is tough to disregard, particularly in comparison with the way in which Denmark fell agonizingly into the playoffs.

North American pocket book 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇲🇽

What is the newest with the three co-hosts?

What a distinction a couple of months could make. Not that way back, there have been questions on Mauricio Pochettino’s viability as head coach, and flaming out on dwelling soil subsequent 12 months appeared like an actual chance. Now, the USMNT is instantly flying excessive going into the World Cup 12 months after closing out 2025 with its finest efficiency but underneath the Argentine tactician, a 5-1 dismantling of Uruguay. And there was no asterisk right here. Uruguay, considered one of South America’s finest groups, rolled out an XI that may doubtless look similar to the one which begins the group’s opening World Cup match subsequent summer time. If something, it was the U.S. that wasn’t at full energy in Florida, with Christian Pulisic, Tim Weah, Tyler Adams, and Weston McKennie all absent for varied causes.

The sluggish and disjointed group we noticed earlier this 12 months is unrecognizable. The People are using a five-match unbeaten streak, and all of these video games (4 wins, one draw) had been towards World Cup-bound opponents. Pochettino, who bristled on the postgame suggestion that he was lacking “common” starters, lastly seems to have whole buy-in from his gamers. His finest work on the touchline has at all times come whereas molding youthful gamers – Tottenham being the obvious instance – and that units up an attention-grabbing dynamic. These aforementioned “regulars” aren’t assured something going into 2026. If the likes of Sebastian Berhalter, Tanner Tessmann, and Gio Reyna, now firmly again within the fold, show a greater tactical match, they will get the nod. That has the potential to create drama, but it surely’s extra doubtless that the interior competitors will power everybody to boost their stage as they battle for coveted beginning spots.

There is not any such factor as a wasted worldwide window when getting ready for a World Cup; there’s at all times one thing to remove. However Jesse Marsch and his workers doubtless did not be taught as a lot as they might’ve preferred of their November fixtures. Sure, Canada showcased glorious defensive construction and solidity towards Ecuador, incomes a goalless attract Toronto regardless of enjoying nearly all the match with 10 males after a sixth-minute crimson card. A 2-0 win over Venezuela, an ill-tempered and weirdly belligerent sport that featured crimson playing cards for each groups, did not transfer the needle a lot both approach. Canada lastly ended a 342-minute purpose drought, discovering the web for the primary time for the reason that September window. In protection, Richie Laryea continued to solidify his place within the beginning lineup, no matter when captain Alphonso Davies returns, and center-back Alfie Jones made a strong, if unspectacular, debut.

Issues stay up entrance, although. Jonathan David, for a while essentially the most constant and dependable member of Marsch’s aspect, is in a funk. He has two targets in his final 16 matches for membership and nation; for the primary time, his gradual begin and restricted minutes at Juventus translated to the nationwide group. Even when he is not scoring, David’s one-touch link-up play and reference to onrushing wingers and midfielders make him an indispensable a part of the XI. However even that was missing towards Venezuela. He is not in any actual hazard of dropping his beginning spot, however on a group that already struggles to generate targets, having your finest ahead in a rut is a giant concern. Canada could be very robust to interrupt down, having now saved 5 clear sheets in its final six outings, however the largest query mark continues to be on the different finish.

Mexico is trending in precisely the other way of bitter rival the US. El Tri endured one other winless worldwide window, drawing 0-0 with Uruguay – a outcome that appears a lot worse after seeing the People steamroll Marcelo Bielsa’s group days later – earlier than falling at dwelling to Paraguay and being showered with jeers from annoyed followers. Javier Aguirre, doubtless in a determined try to stoke one thing inside his squad, overtly known as out his gamers’ need and talent after the Paraguay defeat, which prolonged Mexico’s winless run to 6 matches.

Exterior of youth phenom Gilberto Mora and ever-present striker Raul Jimenez, Mexico does not provide a lot to be enthusiastic about. These two cannot carry all the group. A slew of lineup modifications from one sport to the subsequent did nothing to enhance the efficiency, leaving extra questions than solutions going into 2026. Aguirre was introduced again to offer some stability for a program that was chewing up and spitting out coaches too rapidly lately, however he hasn’t been capable of finding the appropriate method over the previous few months. The USMNT demonstrates it is doable for that change to be flipped fairly rapidly, however Aguirre’s operating out of time.

On the rise 📈

We sometimes spotlight risers and fallers right here, however within the curiosity of maintaining the great vibes after an exhilarating worldwide window, we’ll concentrate on the groups and gamers which might be trending up.

📈 Hampden heroes: Scotland is heading to the World Cup for the primary time since 1998 after one of the crucial rousing leads to the entire qualifying cycle. The Scots’ electrical 4-2 win over Denmark had Hampden Park shaking. Scott McTominay, reworked from Manchester United misfit to cult hero at Napoli, scored a towering bicycle kick. Kieran Tierney’s beautiful roller within the 93rd minute stood up because the purpose that clinched a long-awaited event berth, and Kenny McLean put an exclamation level on all of it by scoring from the freaking midway line within the ultimate seconds. Scottish followers, lengthy resigned to easily cheering for whoever was enjoying towards England, will lastly get to root for his or her group on the grandest stage as soon as extra. The event can be higher off with the boisterous Tartan Military in North America.

📈 Troy Parrott: Two weeks in the past, Parrott was a promising younger striker attempting to determine himself as a constant scoring menace for his nation. Now he is an Irish hero. Parrott, shipped off to Dutch membership AZ Alkmaar after coming via the Tottenham academy, made his Eire debut in 2019. He had simply 5 targets for his nationwide group previous to the November worldwide window. He matched that whole in two video games. He scored twice in a win over Portugal, outshining Cristiano Ronaldo, to maintain Eire’s World Cup hopes alive, after which outdid himself with a hat-trick, together with a 96th-minute winner, in a sensational comeback win over Hungary that despatched Eire to the European playoffs on the Hungarians’ expense. Within the blink of an eye fixed, he is risen from bit-part participant to nationwide icon. His childhood neighbors are being interviewed on TV, and the Dublin Airport renamed itself after him on social media. The attractive sport in all its glory. Simply think about what’ll occur if Eire really qualifies for the event.

📈 Blue Wave: No, not that one. We’re speaking, after all, about Curacao, the tiny island nation that turned the smallest by inhabitants (simply over 156,000) to ever qualify for the World Cup. Eat your coronary heart out, Iceland. As a U.S. comparable, that is roughly the inhabitants of Kansas Metropolis (the one in Kansas, not the one in Missouri). In Canada, that is akin to Barrie, Ontario. You get the concept. Veteran Dutch supervisor Dick Advocaat, who could not attend the clinching 0-0 attract Jamaica attributable to a household matter, has masterminded a miracle. This type of story – together with Cape Verde, Uzbekistan, and different unlikely debutants – was at all times the most important promoting function of an expanded World Cup. Will the general high quality of the event be diluted in comparison with earlier editions? Definitely. However possibly that is not the worst value to pay for as soon as once more seeing historical past made and goals fulfilled for groups like Curacao.

Fast free-kicks 💥

What else is catching the attention?

Take a look at of conviction: Petulance has at all times been a part of Cristiano Ronaldo’s sport. He is the best goalscorer within the historical past of males’s worldwide soccer, however when issues do not go his approach, he is susceptible to bouts of frustration on the pitch. It lastly got here again to chew him for Portugal. Ronaldo’s first crimson card for his nation, in his 226th senior look, has the potential to rule him out of not less than one World Cup sport, relying on how extreme FIFA desires the punishment to be for his impetuous elbow towards Eire. As a result of his sending-off occurred in a qualifier, any subsequent ban cannot be utilized to pleasant matches. He missed Portugal’s ultimate qualifier, a 9-1 win over Armenia – extra proof that the squad capabilities finest with out him? – which implies the group’s subsequent aggressive fixture is on the World Cup. What are the probabilities Gianni Infantino, who simply dined with Ronaldo on the White Home, will permit one of the crucial marketable gamers ever, at his ultimate World Cup, to be absent for his nation’s opener? You are able to do the mathematics.

All for one, one for all: England simply turned solely the second European group to ever full a World Cup qualifying marketing campaign with an ideal file and no targets conceded. The Three Lions are a really respectable menace to win the rattling factor. And but, the effervescent discord between no-nonsense bench boss Thomas Tuchel and famous person midfielder Jude Bellingham continues to hold over the squad and eat up actual property within the British media. Regardless of all of the noise, I nonetheless assume the Actual Madrid man ought to begin subsequent summer time. It would be one factor if Tuchel needed to shoehorn him into the XI on the expense of his whole tactical plan, however that is not likely the case. Bellingham’s a greater participant than Morgan Rogers, who seems to be his competitors proper now. Assuming Bellingham does not do something to upset his supervisor – not a assure based mostly on his newest response to being substituted! – you’d assume he’ll get the nod. It is from a certain factor, although. Based mostly on Tuchel’s utilization so far, Harry Kane is the one undroppable participant in England’s XI.

Group of Demise: We nonetheless do not know all of the groups that’ll be concerned within the World Cup draw, however the newest version of the FIFA rankings helped make clear a number of the pots that we’ll see Dec. 5 and a number of the potential teams that might be compiled. The largest standout, apart from Germany narrowly beating out Croatia for a coveted place in Pot 1, is Norway. Anticipated to fit into Pot 3, Erling Haaland and the Norwegians are the plain outliers that each perennial energy can be determined to keep away from. We examined in October how a dominant No. 9 can single-handedly carry a group on the World Cup, and there is none higher proper now than Haaland. The Manchester Metropolis hitman, who scored not less than as soon as in each Group I match, completed the qualifying marketing campaign with 16 targets. No one else in Europe registered greater than eight.

Who’s in, who’s out? 🎟️

Forty-two of a doable 48 nations have booked their tickets. For an in depth breakdown of how every group has certified up to now, faucet right here.

Betting odds 🤑

Which groups are favored to win the event?

⚽️ Take a look at the total World Cup odds on ESPN BET and theScore Wager right here

Key dates forward 🗓️

Dec. 5, 2025: World Cup drawMarch 23-31, 2026: Closing World Cup qualifying matchesJune 1-9, 2026: Pre-tournament pleasant matchesJune 11, 2026: World Cup opening match