With the Giro completed, time to have a look at the UCI scores and the relegation battle as all factors from the final week have been added to the official rankings out right now.
We don’t want a spreadsheet to see that XDS-Astana appear like a World Tour workforce. Their downside is they didn’t for the previous two seasons and they also’re having to over-compensate. To this point it’s working.
The primary chart above reveals all the highest groups ranked on the premise of their factors from 2023, 2024 and to date this season. All of the top-18 groups, these above the purple line, are eligible for the World Tour for 2026 and past. There’s small print right here within the guidelines however we are able to skip this for now.
Squint on the chart and you may see Lotto and IPT above the purple line, look nearer and word Lotto’s tiny haul of factors this 12 months. The likes of UAE are to date forward – they’ve scored nearly as many factors this season than Arkéa-B&B have since 2023 – that we have to zoom in so the chart under reveals the relegation battle extra intently.
XDS-Astana are opening up a niche on these under. They’ll’t open the champagne but to rejoice World Tour security however they’ll put the bottles within the cooler having risen as much as seventeenth place and momentum is with them too.
The chart above reveals the development from week to week this season. With all of the Giro’s factors solely being added this week after the race has ended you may see the soar for XDS-Astana and Picnic-PostNL.
Crucially Picnic-PostNL have leapfrogged Cofidis. As issues stand right now the French workforce faces relegation. They’ve been underneath stress all season however now as a French workforce heading right into a collection of excessive profile French races they’ll be pestered about relegation. Even a stage win on the Tour de France dangers being written up as a aid somewhat than a triumph.
We should always word that Intermarché-Wanty are removed from secure, they’ve scored factors this season however not on the fee of different relegation rivals who’ve the Belgian squad of their websites. They’re reliant on Biniam Girmay and so the workforce’s destiny may rely how he fares in June and July.
Assumptions…With Lotto and IPT among the many top-18 we are able to assume they’re promoted however that is simply that, an assumption. The Belgian workforce’s future ought to include an asterisk. There’s no information on a co-sponsor they usually’ve reduce on racing this season as a result of their funding has shrunk, they didn’t journey the Giro. So we’ll must see in the event that they search, and may afford, promotion subsequent 12 months. It’s all making a vicious circle the place their lack of outcomes received’t entice additional sponsors which makes life tougher for them subsequent 12 months. Arnaud De Lie is able to delivering large within the opening week of the Tour de France; however that’s a self-reinforcing downside as this stress is just going to hamper him.
Adieu Arkéa?Assuming two groups transfer up, then two groups go down. Arkéa-B&B Motels are nearly definitely heading for relegation. The arithmetic is in opposition to them, successful the Tour, Vuelta and a packet of levels alongside the way in which wouldn’t save them; the extra urgent matter is their survival. There’s no formal information on their continuation however neither is there any excellent news on substitute sponsorship. Group administration stated earlier this 12 months there would information by April; now it appears we’ll get an announcement this facet of the Tour de France.
Small printNote the UCI guidelines (rule 2.15.011a) work on the premise of the top-18 groups on the finish of this season making use of for a World Tour spot which is subtly totally different from the top-18. We are able to go away this for now however might must return to this as soon as we all know extra concerning the groups.
WildcardsA reminder too that groups exterior of the World Tour depend on invites to participate within the prime occasions. One of the best two groups exterior of the World Tour subsequent 12 months primarily based off their 2025 rankings solely get computerized invitations and proper now that is Uno-X and Cofidis, assuming their relegation.
However that is tight. Tudor are solely a handful of factors behind the French workforce and if Marc Hirschi and Julian Alaphilippe can win or simply rating they’ll be in a great place. That is why relegation is a double jeopardy difficulty for Cofidis, they might drop out of the World Tour after which discover themselves with out the mushy touchdown of computerized invitations. Certain they may get invitations for the Tour de France and different races however word the workforce sponsor is invested throughout a number of European markets and so a large calendar issues.
And past…Arkéa-B&B did nicely to qualify for the World Tour by scoring a lot in 2020-2022, their race programme and sending riders to points-rich races is being copied by XDS-Astana right now. However as soon as the French workforce moved up they didn’t do a lot since, it was as if promotion was the tip in itself somewhat than a method to extra. XDS-Astana must keep away from this.
XDS-Astana’s plan is working. Does this variation now and what their plans are for subsequent 12 months? You don’t want a spreadsheet to see they appear like a World Tour workforce, they’re seen within the motion in ways in which Cofidis, Arkéa, Intermarché simply will not be though these groups have an opportunity to shine quickly, assume Girmay again on the Tour de France.
Tactically the Kazakh workforce can afford to attempt to win extra somewhat than place due to their rating, however simpler stated than completed though it’s an choice for the Tour de France now. However strategically the place to they go now, what kind of workforce do they need to be?
The identical is true for promotion candidates IPT and Lotto, will they make signings and if that’s the case the place? Jakob Fuglsang is retiring and we’ll see if Chris Froome and Michael Woods do the identical, it’ll unlock house and money.
ConclusionXDS Astana look sturdy and needs to be planning for subsequent 12 months within the World Tour. Cofidis are dealing with relegation however there’s all to race for with Picnic-PostNL and Intermarché dealing with worries.
Plus the alarm bells at Lotto are getting louder, they’ve raced much less this season however with out a high quality over amount story and really want a co-sponsor to consolidate their place again within the World Tour.
