Two months of the season to go and right here’s a take a look at the standings within the promotion and relegation race. Issues are shut on the backside finish of the desk with occasions off the highway in addition to seemingly as racing outcomes to affect the outcomes.
As issues stand Lotto and Israel-PremierTech get promoted as they’re among the many top-18 groups on the premise of their cumulative factors rating from 2023, 2024 and 2025. In the meantime Cofidis and Arkéa-B&B Resorts get relegated. Nevertheless this situation appears to be like prefer it gained’t stand…
Arkéa-B&B Resorts is about to lose each sponsors. Workforce supervisor Emmanuel Hubert retains pushing again the date when he’ll announce the workforce has run out of highway for 2026, loyal readers will keep in mind April was the primary deadline, then the Tour, then the top of the ladies’s Tour was the deadline and now there’s no information. Might the workforce be saved? Sure is the straightforward reply, if somebody studying desires to present them €20 million then they will journey on. Extra realistically they could try to salvage one thing, maybe the ladies’s workforce?
The lads’s workforce nonetheless has a hope too due to the factors. As a result of whereas it faces relegation Kévin Vauquelin’s parting reward is a stack of UCI factors which implies that as of at the moment it might be eligible for a Tour de France invite subsequent 12 months; however the actual deadline is the top of the season and issues are tight, it’s not a golden ticket that an incoming sponsor ought to financial institution on.
Cofidis are under the pink line after a lacklustre Tour de France whereas relegation rivals Picnic-PostNL soared away. In order that they’re going through relegation. There may be nonetheless a path to stay within the World Tour nevertheless it’s tough. First they might overtake Intermarché-Wanty however that alone is a tough ask, the French workforce began the 12 months 1,865 factors behind, now they’re 1,142 and so the development says they gained’t shut the hole with solely two months of racing left.
As an alternative Cofidis’ higher hope for Intermarché is that the Belgian workforce merges with Lotto in time for 2026 which frees up an area within the World Tour for the French workforce at the moment in nineteenth place so it could sit in 18th place and thus the World Tour.
Solely right here come Uno-X. They began the season virtually 3,000 factors behind Cofidis and at the moment are simply 263 factors brief. In order that 18th place might nicely go to the Norwegian workforce as a substitute leaving Cofidis relegated. Uno-X say they’re within the World Tour, it could give them assured Tour begins from 2026-2028 moderately than chasing wildcards every season, particularly with rivals like Tudor and Q36.5 on the up too; nevertheless it’s expensive to race in every single place for sponsors that solely have an curiosity of their residence markets.
The Intermarché-Lotto merger in all probability must occur for each groups to shore up their financing. Mergers solely work by as a way of consolidating sponsorship, placing two groups of 25-30 riders collectively should lead to a workforce of 25-30 riders so this can be a fraught prospect only for the riders. Talks are nonetheless ongoing, Intermarché could be very a lot Jean-François Bourlart’s workforce and a squad that may hint its origins out of a neighborhood biking membership. Lotto in the meantime is the longest-running title sponsor within the sport going again to 1985 however the involvement of the state lottery means it comes with political oversight, a well mannered manner of claiming some politicians wish to meddle with the workforce. Studying the Belgian press it appears more likely to occur however is way from a carried out deal.
If it doesn’t occur there’s an opportunity that Lotto has to show down World Tour promotion as a result of it could possibly’t afford to race in every single place on a regular basis; and Intemarché might even be overtaken by different groups, get relegated and since it’s having a dire time, not be eligible for computerized invitations subsequent 12 months both. That is getting extremely conditional, a what-if situation raised by one other one however nonetheless just one or two outcomes away from actuality.
The 2026 Grand Tour Invite RaceIf the World Tour has 18 groups then 5 extra groups are eligible to journey the Tour de France, the game’s golden ticket. Three locations go to the very best workforce on the 2025 rankings: at the moment Uno-X, Tudor and Arkéa.
However right here comes a brain-frazzling chain of unstable situations as a result of if Lotto and Intermarché merge then Uno-X might be part of the World Tour… whereas Arkéa-B&B Resorts might cease which implies the three groups for 2026 are Tudor, Cofidis and Q36.5. In the meantime the French workforce is just 440 factors away from Q36.5 and so these two groups have a lot to race for in case one hyperlink within the chain of occasions doesn’t occur.
ConclusionThere’s solely two months of racing left to the season however arguably the scenario for promotion, relegation and the allocation of invitations for 2026 is extra unsure at the moment than it was in the beginning of the 12 months. There are numerous what-if conditional situations now concerning a Lotto-Intermarché rescue merger, if it doesn’t occur it might be tough for each groups, but in addition others too. Slightly than needing a calculator or a spreadsheet to tot up the factors, it’s additionally all the way down to extra elements.
However there may be additionally a lot to race for within the coming weeks. Uno-X, Cofidis and Q36.5 face an important interval the place outcomes might decide their calendar for subsequent 12 months and past.
