2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES
WOMEN’S 4×100 FREE RELAY — BY THE NUMBERS:
World Report: 3:27.96 – Australia: M. O’Callaghan, S. Jack, M. Harris, E. McKeon (2023)
World Junior Report: 3:36.19 – Canada: T. Ruck, P. Oleksiak, R. Smith, Ok. Sanchez (2017)
Olympic Report: 3:29.69 – Australia: B. Campbell, C. Campbell, M. Harris, E. McKeon (2021)
2021 Olympic Champion: Australia – B. Campbell, C. Campbell, M. Harris, E. McKeon – 3:29.69
(No puns at this time, of us. It’s time to get critical [insert winky face emoji here])
Undefeated on the Olympic degree on this occasion relationship again to 2012, the Australian Ladies enter Paris because the heavy favourite within the Ladies’s 4×100 Free Relay as they don’t seem to be solely the defending Olympic Champions but additionally the World Report holders. As a nation, they’ve held the World Report within the occasion since 2014, when the workforce of Bronte Campbell, Melanie Schlanger, Emma McKeon, and Cate Campbell swam to a time of three:30.98, smashing the supersuited report of three:31.72 set by the Dutch again in 2009.
Since then, they’ve lowered it an extra 4 instances, twice on the Olympics and most not too long ago final summer season on the 2023 World Championships in Fukuoka, Japan. The workforce of Mollie O’Callaghan, Shayna Jack, Meg Harris, and McKeon demolished the report, setting an unbelievable mark of three:27.96. Not solely did they utterly skirt 3:28, reducing the report by an astounding 1.73 seconds, however their margin of victory over the workforce from the USA was an enormous 3.97 seconds.
As the one nation to ever have damaged 3:30, not to mention 3:31, the Aussies appear far and away the winners, however with 4 swimmers, that’s 4 instances the variety of probabilities of DQs or sickness to pop up and the People, who enter Paris with a reloaded squad from Tokyo, will likely be trying to pounce on any missteps. The identical too might be stated for the Chinese language, who, in Fukuoka, set an Asian report and have since proven extra velocity and firepower.
“Profitable will not be an occasion, however a behavior. You might be what you repeatedly do.” – Aristotle
It’s a real sufficient assertion, and the Australian ladies have lived as much as it. Not solely are they back-to-back-to-back Olympic Champions, successful in 2012 (3:33.15), 2016 (3:30.65), and 2021 (3:39.69), the final two in each Olympic and World Report trend. It’s not simply on the Olympics, nevertheless, that the Aussies have reigned supreme from 2013 to 2024; they haven’t positioned worse than second on the World Championships, successful in 2015, 2019, 2022, and 2023.
Nevertheless, previous precedent doesn’t essentially imply they’re going to win, and up to date performances should be taken under consideration. Sadly, their outcomes, as of late, don’t appear to supply a lot hope to different nations. At their latest Olympic Trials, the 2023 World Champion within the 100, O’Callaghan, swept the competitors as she posted a time of 52.33, her 4th quickest efficiency ever and simply off her time from earlier within the season of 52.27, each of which ranked her the third quickest performer on this planet this season.
Ending behind her was Jack. The Australian turned one of many nation’s nice success tales in Fukuoka as she walked away from the meet with three gold medals and two silvers. Regardless of not having a spot within the particular person 100, Jack’s lead-off of 52.28 made her the tenth quickest performer of all time, and she or he additionally posted the eighth quickest relay cut up of all time when she anchored the Aussie blended medley relay in 51.53.
Jack’s time from trials of 52.72 was slightly off her finest however was sufficient to get by Meg Harris and safe a person 100 swim. Harris swam a prelims time on the 2024 Trials of 52.52, a time that made her the 4th quickest on this planet this season and the eleventh quickest of all time, and but due to the restrict of two swimmers per nation will likely be unable to compete within the particular person occasion as was slower in finals and completed third in 52.97.
Rounding out the anticipated relay for the Aussies is a Campbell, however maybe not the one folks have been anticipating. Bronte Campbell nabbed 4th within the race, qualifying for her 4th Olympics. Her elder sister Cate, a four-time Olympic Gold medalist and the proprietor of the 4 quickest 100 free relay splits, together with the one sub 51:00, didn’t make the workforce as she completed ninth in prelims and subsequently retired.
That stated, C2, as Bronte is commonly referred to as, is an impressive sprinter in her personal proper; she holds three Olympic relay medals, 11 lengthy course Worlds medals, and is the ninth quickest performer of all time within the occasion, swimming 52.27 again in 2018. At trials, Campbell was 53.10 in finals however 52.95 in prelims, a outcome that makes her the tenth quickest on this planet this season (and faster than her lead-off of 53.01 in Tokyo).
For those who’ve been holding monitor, then sure, the Australian’s prime 4 swimmers from trials usually are not solely the third, 4th, seventh, and tenth quickest swimmers on this planet this season but additionally the seventh, ninth, tenth, and eleventh quickest performers of all time.
So as to add insult to harm, the fifth and sixth place finishers at trials for the Australians rank because the fifteenth and eleventh quickest this season, with the latter being McKeon, who was the 2021 Olympic Champion within the 100 free and is the one different swimmer moreover the World Report holder to have ever been underneath 52.00.
McKeon really throws a wrinkle into Australia’s relay choices. She’s going to doubtless qualify for the semifinals of the 100 fly, that are as a result of happen the identical day because the relay, so her participation within the relay is questionable, particularly if she hasn’t absolutely healed from her harm. seventh place finisher Brianna Throssell (53.61) can also be on the workforce, and whereas slower than McKeon, she did swim a leg within the prelims on the 2023 Worlds. Nevertheless, if McKeon does swim within the morning and is nearer to her finest time, does the teaching employees think about using her at evening and leaving off both Harris or Campbell?
Regardless of the consequence, a conundrum equivalent to that is actually not going to carry the workforce again. Whereas, because the chart above reveals, their cumulative time is slower than each in 2021 and 2023, there’s little doubt that the Australians will likely be again underneath 3:30. Whereas it’s not sure that they are going to break the World report once more, the Olympic Report of three:29.69 is actually underneath risk for the third straight version.
“Profitable is greater than beating others; it’s about surpassing your personal limits and continually pushing your self.” – Michael Jordan
It looks as if a little bit of a cop-out to go together with a subheading that enables one to win with out really being atop the rostrum, however with the Australians’ dominance and the People’ lack of success in usurping them, it appeared becoming. Maybe a greater quote would have been from The West Wing, when CJ Cregg stated, “We’re transferring the goalposts and claiming the match.” (that stated, and considerably counter to the Article title and quote above, it might be unbelievable to see the US win this. And in the event that they did, would it not be a better upset than the US vs France in 2008?)
And I believe an ideal location for that goalpost can be the American report. The US final gained a serious worldwide gold medal on this occasion on the 2017 Worlds, once they beat the Aussies to the wall, stopping the clock in 3:31.72, a then-new American report. Two years later, regardless of a reversal of spots on the rostrum, the US once more lowered the American report to three:31.02. Since then, within the intervening 5 years, the US hasn’t been shut, ending in 3:32.81 on the Olympics (third), 3:32.58 on the 2022 Worlds (third), and three:31.93 final summer season (2nd).
Nevertheless, the outcomes of the latest US Trials appear to assist that constructive pattern of time drops and present that the report is underneath critical risk.
Kate Douglass (photograph: Jack Spitser)
There’s plenty of information and numbers to course of, however the important thing attracts are these: One, it’s the primary time that the US has ever had two swimmers underneath 53 within the finals of the occasion, and second, their cumulative time collectively is quicker than it has been earlier than. If these 4 swimmers can replicate these performances (and subtracting a conservative .4 for relay exchanges), the US ladies might be knocking on the three:30 barrier. To notice, the American Report of three:31.02 was set by the workforce of Comerford (52.98), Weitzeil (52.66), Kelsi Dahlia (53.46), and Manuel (51.92) on the 2019 Worlds.
That stated, final yr’s cumulative time was additionally quicker than the time in 2019, however the finish outcome was slower. A lot of that may be defined by Gretchen Walsh, who led off in 54.06, practically a second slower than her time from trials. Nevertheless, it was on the again of a double with the semifinals of the 100 fly, a destiny that doubtless will befall each her and Torri Huske once more.
Much like the Australians, the US has some choices to play with. Kate Douglass, who dropped the person occasion, may swim within the morning instead of Walsh and be a part of Simone Manuel, Abbey Weitzeil, and Erika Connolly (nee Brown), the latter three of whom have years of relay expertise, with Manuel being the American report holder and 2016 co-Olympic champion within the occasion. Whereas the US can’t compete with Australia’s firepower, that is the closest they might be within the final 5 years as the highest 4 all rank throughout the world’s prime 15 this yr, led by Douglass at fifth along with her 52.56. If it types out that Walsh and Huske can handle the fast turnaround from the 100-fly semis to the the relay, the US needs to be in an excellent place for a brand new report and the silver medal.
Progress is the exercise of at this time and the peace of mind of tomorrow — Ralph Waldo Emerson
Yang Junxuan, courtesy of Fabio Cetti
Time strikes in a different way in relays as in comparison with particular person occasions. I don’t imply the minutes and seconds however quite the journey it takes to develop a workforce. Swimmers can pop up and go from newcomers to stars in only a yr, however to have a relay enhance takes a sustained effort by multiple swimmer, as you want 4 (or extra) swimmers to all be hitting their strides on the identical second in addition to the depth essential to supply such a possibility.
Seeming to be hitting their stride on the actual proper time are the Chinese language. In 2019, their workforce completed sixth in 3:35.83. Two years later, on the Olympics, they completed down one spot however in a brand new Asian report time of three:34.76. In 2022, whereas slower, they improved to 4th on this planet, and final summer season in Fukuoka, they have been rewarded with a brand new Asian report of three:32.40, a bronze medal, and simply .47 away from the silver.
Trying into this yr, the Chinese language could also be in line to proceed that pattern and look to pounce on any missteps by the People. Yang Junxuan made the ultimate within the 100 final summer season however completed eighth in 54.09 and had a semifinals time of 53.67. Nevertheless, this previous Could, she rocked the world with a brand new Chinese language report of 52.68 to not solely turn into the eighth quickest on this planet but additionally the sixteenth quickest performer of all time.
Just a little additional again, her fellow compatriots Wu Qingfeng (53.25), Zhang Yufei (53.27), and Cheng Yujie (53.27) all put up prime 20 instances on this planet this season as properly from the identical meet. With Yang’s enhancements, they may simply be underneath 3:32, as their trial instances, when added, come to three:32.47. Nevertheless, like McKeon and the American pair, Zhang must take care of the 100-fly semifinals overlapping with the relay.
In a seemingly comparable place because the Chinese language are the workforce from Nice Britain. They didn’t area a relay in 2019 however completed fifth on the Olympics in 2021. Their time of three:33.96 set a brand new nationwide report that will stand only for two years as the identical quartet completed 4th in Fukuoka, chopping .06 off the report. The relay comprised of Anna Hopkin (53.67), Lucy Hope (53.53), Abbie Wooden (54.19), and Freya Anderson (52.51).
Nevertheless, whereas the Chinese language swimmer had a powerful efficiency at trials, the Brits didn’t. Hopkin gained in a formidable 53.33, however the the rest of the workforce struggled. Anderson, who was battling with glandular fever was 54.59. Hope and Wooden did swim within the ultimate however have been simply 55.35 and 55.26, respectively, ending seventh and sixth. Eva Okaro, simply 18, had a powerful displaying to put 2nd in 54.46, however with Anderson’s poor efficiency and Freya Colbert‘s 55.10 for 4th, it doesn’t appear doubtless that they will recapture that magic, but when Anderson recovers absolutely, then they nonetheless will doubtless ultimate.
“Our best glory will not be in by no means falling, however in rising each time we fall.” – Confucius
courtesy of Fabio Cetti
After successful the bronze on the 2016 Olympics, Canada would turn into a medal favourite within the occasion, claiming bronze once more in 2019 establishing a brand new nationwide report of three:31.78. Two years later, on the Olympics in 2021, they claimed silver in 3:32.78, out-touching the People by .03. 2022 noticed one other silver medal, because the workforce once more beat out the People as soon as once more, ending in 3:32.15 this time with a margin of .43.
One yr later, nevertheless, the Canadian fell off the rostrum and plummeted to seventh place within the occasion. Penny Oleksiak, the 2016 co-Olympic Champion was absent from the squad coping with accidents. Taylor Ruck, who had been a stalwart of the workforce relationship again to 2016, was battling with a hand harm, and Kayla Sanchez, who gained two medals on the Olympic Video games in Tokyo, had begun to modify her sporting nationality to the Philippines and was due to this fact unable to signify Group Canada.
The workforce completed in 3:36.62 and was led by Summer time McIntosh‘s lead-off leg of 54.99, and whereas she is a first-rate swimmer, the 100 free doesn’t share too many similarities with the 200 fly and 400 IM, occasions through which she claimed gold in a while within the week.
In Could, at Canada’s Olympic Trials, Oleksiak, the nationwide report holder (52.59), earned her spot on the Olympic workforce by advantage of successful the 100 free, however her time of 53.66 was exterior the qualifying time and didn’t give her a possibility to swim the occasion individually. Seemingly becoming a member of Oleksiak on the relay are Mary-Sophie Harvey, who positioned 2nd in 53.71, Brooklyn Douthwright (third – 54.33), and Ruck (4th – 54.47).
The Canadians do have some choices, although, and will enhance within the finals, ought to they advance. Maggie MacNeil, the reigning Olympic Champion within the 100 fly, has three medals to her identify on this relay and was the lone vibrant spot on the relay final summer season as she cut up 53.07. McIntosh, too, may are available in as she anchored their medley relay on the finish of the meet in 53.48. The problem, which impacts lots of the groups above, is that the relay conflicts with different occasions, on this case, MacNeil’s 100 fly and McIntosh’s 400 free, so the coaches should choose their potential to get well towards the swims from people who swam in prelims.
Marrit Steenbergen courtesy World Aquatics
In an identical vein to the Canadians, however in an extended (considerably) droop, are the Dutch. The Netherlands’ sprinting prowess was at its peak within the 2000s. They gained a medal of every colour on the Olympics capped by a gold on the 2008 Video games, and have been simply .14 off their World Report time of three:33.62. A yr later on the peak of super-suits, the Dutch would re-broke the report, reducing it to three:31.72 (a mark that stood til 2014).
Even with out the fits, the workforce gained on the 2011 Worlds and claimed silver on the London Video games. But slowly, with retirements, these golds and silvers turned to bronzes, and by 2019, they’d fallen out of the medals. They’ve at all times been within the finals however have been counting on the prowess of Marrit Steenbergen, who, regardless of a 51.84 cut up, completed sixth final summer season in a time of three:35.41, greater than three seconds again of the medals.
We haven’t spoken a lot in regards to the 2024 Worlds on this article, and for good motive. Whereas one can not take away the accomplishments and medals from the meet, the inserting bears little relevance to this text because it was a sparsely attended meet. The Dutch workforce of Kim Busch, Janna van Kooten, Kira Toussaint, and Steenbergen topped the rostrum, claiming gold, however in 3:36.61, greater than a second behind their time in Fukuoka.
That stated, Toussaint’s cut up of 53.81 was quicker than any of the splits from 2023, save Steenbergen’s, so the Dutch may discover themselves on the upswing as soon as once more, if the backstroker can replicate that efficiency.
“One particular person could make a distinction…” – JFK
Of the 2 groups not but talked about from the 2021 Olympic ultimate, Sweden seems to have the higher shot at making the ultimate. Denmark, which completed eighth in Tokyo, fell to 14th in 2023 and hasn’t but recovered from Pernille Blume‘s retirement. The Danes have been 3:38.48 at Euros, which was good for silver, however they might want to discover at the very least one other half-second to have a hope of creating the ultimate.
Led by the person WR holder, Sarah Sjostrom, Sweden completed sixth within the Olympic ultimate (3:34.69). Two years later, in Fukuoka, Sjostrom posted the second quickest lead-off time (52.24) as Sweeden completed fifth in 3:34.17, qualifying for these Olympic Video games. Sjostrom has 4 Olympic medals and 25 long-course World medals to her identify, however simply two of them come from relays (each medley). Whereas she may add extra, it appears unlikely to come back from this relay.
Sweden’s report comes from 2017 when the workforce completed fifth in a time of three:33.94, and whereas three swimmers from that relay will likely be in Paris, that point got here on the again of Sjostrom’s 51.71 World report, and Michelle Coleman‘s latest outcomes appear to indicate she gained’t be capable of replicate her 52.68 cut up.
Like Sweden, Hong Kong’s success and talent to qualify for the occasion has been on the again of Siobhan Haughey. The third quickest performer within the occasion ever, Haughey, who swam collegiately for Michigan, cut up 52.59 for the Hong Kong squad as they completed twelfth within the prelims in Fukuoka. Her time was the one swim underneath 55 because the workforce set a brand new nationwide report of three:39.93. Nevertheless, regardless of Haughey’s latest PB of 52.02 being a half-second enchancment upon her cut up, it’s unlikely that she alone can get her workforce into the ultimate.
“Doing all your finest means by no means cease attempting” – Benjamin Franklin
With Japan opting to not use their relay berth (Eire will now have the chance to area a relay), the combat for that eighth spot will likely be tight. On the 2023 Worlds, each Italy and France have been lower than a second exterior of creating the ultimate, and Poland took the chance to qualify for the meet on the 2024 Worlds, the place they set a brand new Nationwide report of three:38.65.
Italy: In 2023, the squad didn’t have any lights-out efficiency, with the quickest cut up of 54.14 belonging to Costanza Cocconcelli, however recorded a mark of three:37.93 as they completed ninth. Just a little worrying, the identical foursome completed fifth in Doha however in a slower time of three:38.65. Nevertheless, Sofia Morini swam 53.92 at Sette Colli not too long ago, and Chiara Tarantino was 54.05 in March, so the Italian squad might be in line for an excellent drop.
France: The French, too, had middling leads to Fukuoka, ending in tenth with a time of three:38.52, with no cut up underneath 54.3. Nevertheless, maybe impressed by the possibility to compete in entrance of a house crowd, Marie Wattel popped off an OQT of 53.59 on the French Trials. Beryl Gastaldello, who was 53.60 earlier within the yr, additionally earned a person berth in Paris, and with a 54.08 from Mary-Ambre Moluh, it’ll come all the way down to Charlotte Bonnet and if she will get near her nationwide report of 52.74.
Poland: Led by a Polish report from Katarzyna Wasick (54.12), the quartet will likely be one in every of solely two groups to make use of their outcomes from Doha to qualify for the Olympics, the opposite being Slovenia. Whereas Wasick is a medal risk within the 50, her 100 velocity is probably going not sufficient to get Poland into the ultimate with out assist.
The Verdict
(earlier than I am going additional, simply know that each swimmer at this degree is a winner. Everybody on the market proper now who fell simply in need of making the Olympics is a winner. Everybody who tried their finest and even simply tried is a winner. It’s the motion, it’s the hassle, it’s the try that units you aside. Profitable is a mindset; chase it. – corny? Sure, however I additionally genuinely really feel it).
This part needs to be mercifully quick in case you are uninterested in studying. Australia would want a disqualification, harm mid-race or some act of a supernatural being to lose this race.
And but, it’s not a 100% lock. The US instances from trials, when summed, are inside a second of the Aussies, and whereas all of the Australians have been off their bests within the ultimate, we are able to’t assume that Jack will be capable of cut up 51 mid once more, nor do we all know if Bronte can swim within the 52 low vary. Nor, nevertheless, can we assume that the People will be capable of replicate their instances. That stated, if I have been a betting man, I’d say the Aussies are going to win however fall in need of breaking the World Report.
After them, I believe it’s silver for the People and bronze for China, a repeat of the 2023 podium. Not like particular person occasions, relays are more likely to comply with an identical sample from earlier years primarily based on having 4 swimmers and the lessened affect of what one-star swimmers can do. As such, I believe that Nice Britain, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Canada will make the ultimate, albeit in a unique order.
Mary-Sophie Harvey‘s enchancment within the 100 free and the return of Oleksiak ought to fortify Canada. Nice Britain’s sickness woes are a trigger for concern and do damage their probabilities however not sufficient to knock them out of the ultimate. Sweden and The Netherlands are an fascinating case, however Sweden appears to have a stronger supporting solid round Sjostrom. For the final spot, we’re giving the sting to France. Whereas Italy was over half a second quicker final summer season, France’s doubtless swimmers from their Trials have a summed time of three:35.97, and that’s with none relay exchanges.
SWIMSWAM’S PICKS
RANK
Group
Nationwide Report
Entry Time
1
Australia
3:27.96
3:27.96
2
USA
3:31.02
3:31.93
3
China
3:32.40
3:32.40
4
Canada
3:31.78
3:36.39
5
Sweden
3:33.94
3:34.17
6
Nice Britain
3:33.90
3:33.90
7
Netherlands
3:31.72
3:35.41
8
France
3:34.65
3:38.52
Darkish Horse: Hungary – Hungary positioned thirteenth on the 2023 Worlds in a time of three:40.02, and whereas that will appear to be fairly a stretch, outcomes from the latest European Championships might show in any other case. The workforce in Belgrade smashed their strategy to the win, setting a brand new nationwide report of three:36.77, a time that will have positioned seventh on the 2023 Worlds. The most important distinction between the 2 relays was the addition of Panna Ugrai, who cut up 53.88, and Nikolett Padar, dropping from 55.13 to 53.67 on the anchor.
