PFM Group Rating Audit
PFM ranked the Seahawks No. 1. Seattle gained the Tremendous Bowl. The remainder of the 2025 evaluate is extra sophisticated, and that’s precisely why we needed to run this train.
One of many questions we’re getting probably the most is: For the reason that mannequin is new how are you aware it’s correct? After rebuilding the PFM Group Scores with the whole 2025 season, we froze the board on February 9, 2026, someday after Tremendous Bowl LX. The ultimate rating put each Tremendous Bowl groups within the prime 4, three of the 4 convention finalists within the prime 4 and 9 playoff groups within the prime 10.
That may be a sturdy begin however its not good. Let’s dive deeper into the outcomes.
This was a post-season validation check, not a preseason prediction. The purpose was to see whether or not the scoring mannequin sorted the league in a method that matched regular-season wins and playoff development after the total season was full. This isn’t a declare that PFM known as Seattle’s championship earlier than Week 1.
0.90Correlation between the ultimate PFM Rating and regular-season win proportion.
9 of 10Groups within the PFM prime 10 made the playoffs.
13 of 14Playoff groups have been ranked contained in the PFM prime 18.
2 of twoTremendous Bowl groups completed contained in the PFM prime 4.
What PFM Received Proper
Seattle was the clear No. 1, not a late tie-breaker
The Seattle Seahawks completed with a 91.40 PFM Rating and have been the one crew labeled a Championship Favourite. That was not only a reward for a 14-3 report. Seattle additionally carried a 90.71 Teaching Path grade, a 90.65 Current Efficiency grade and an 88.99 Explosiveness rating.
Mike Macdonald’s crew then beat New England 29-13 in Tremendous Bowl LX. When the champion finishes No. 1 and clears the sector by greater than two factors, the highest of the mannequin did its job.
PFM Rank: No. 1Last End: ChampionPFM Rating: 91.40
The Tremendous Bowl-caliber tier held up
The Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Payments and New England Patriots have been the three groups instantly behind Seattle. All three gained at the very least one playoff recreation.
Los Angeles reached the NFC Championship Sport. New England reached the Tremendous Bowl. Buffalo beat Jacksonville earlier than shedding 33-30 at Denver. The precise order is up for debate however the tier itself was reputable.
Rams: No. 2Payments: No. 3Patriots: No. 4
The playoff area was largely the place it belonged
9 of the highest 10 groups reached the postseason. 13 of the 14 playoff groups landed inside the highest 18. Carolina was the one playoff crew exterior that vary, and the Panthers entered the bracket at 8-9 earlier than shedding within the Wild Card Spherical.
That issues as a result of a helpful energy rating mustn’t merely copy the playoff seeds. PFM handled Carolina like a below-average crew that gained a weak division, not like one of many league’s finest 14 groups. The Panthers’ 72.90 Offense grade and 74.03 Current Efficiency grade supported that decision.
The underside of the league was clear
Washington, Tennessee, Las Vegas and the New York Jets occupied the underside 4 spots. None made the playoffs. Tennessee, Las Vegas and New York completed 3-14, whereas Washington went 5-12.
The mannequin didn’t let one revered coach, one gifted participant or one aggressive stretch conceal a full season of shedding. That’s precisely what the rebuilding tier ought to do.
The place PFM Missed
Denver was the largest underrank
The Denver Broncos went 14-3, earned the AFC’s No. 1 seed and reached the convention championship. PFM nonetheless positioned Denver at No. 10 with an 83.94 rating.
The discrepancy is evident. Denver’s 87.15 Teaching Path grade and 83.90 Protection grade have been sturdy, however an 80.41 QB Stability grade, a 76.92 Explosiveness rating and a 77.99 Franchise Path grade held the general rating down. These considerations might have described the roster, however they carried an excessive amount of weight in contrast with what Denver truly completed.
PFM Rank: No. 10Last End: AFC ChampionshipReport: 14-3
Detroit and Kansas Metropolis stayed too excessive after the wins disappeared
Detroit ranked No. 8 regardless of ending 9-8 and lacking the playoffs. The mannequin nonetheless noticed actual strengths: an 89.29 QB Stability grade, an 85.43 Offense grade and an 88.60 Explosiveness rating. However a 79.00 Protection grade and an 80.29 Current Efficiency grade ought to have pulled the Lions farther down a final-season board.
Kansas Metropolis was additionally a rating that wanted a 2nd look. The Chiefs completed 6-11 and nonetheless ranked No. 15. Their 83.87 QB Stability and 82.68 Teaching Path grades stored them within the prime half, however a six-win crew mustn’t end above a number of successful NFL groups in a post-season accuracy evaluate.
Jacksonville and Philadelphia had warning indicators that didn’t matter sufficient
Jacksonville’s No. 5 rating made sense after a 13-4 season, however the Jaguars entered the playoffs with a 79.70 Offense grade and a 77.66 Explosiveness rating. They misplaced their first playoff recreation 27-24 to Buffalo.
Philadelphia had the same cut up. The Eagles ranked No. 7 despite the fact that the offense sat at 78.19 and Explosiveness at 76.03. San Francisco knocked them out 23-19 within the Wild Card Spherical. The parts noticed the hazard. The ultimate rating didn’t let these weaknesses decrease the ceiling fairly sufficient.
The “Playoff Group” label was too broad
Fourteen groups acquired the Playoff Group outlook. 9 truly made the playoffs. Detroit, Baltimore, Kansas Metropolis, Tampa Bay and Indianapolis have been the misses.
How Every PFM Outlook Carried out
The Trustworthy Verdict
PFM obtained the form of the 2025 league proper. The champion was No. 1. Each Tremendous Bowl groups have been within the prime 4. The strongest outlook tiers produced actual playoff wins, and the underside 4 groups have been precisely the place shedding groups belonged.
The misses got here within the center. Denver’s full season was discounted too closely, whereas Detroit and Kansas Metropolis stayed elevated as a result of quarterback, teaching and offensive strengths outlasted the precise outcomes. Jacksonville and Philadelphia additionally confirmed {that a} sturdy report can conceal a playoff ceiling drawback when the offense will not be creating sufficient margin.
General we’re happy with the outcomes and they’re promising. The actual rankings check will come this upcoming season after we can monitor the league from week-to-week.
Full 2025 Finish-of-Season PFM Rating Audit
The desk beneath makes use of the February 9, 2026 PFM snapshot and the finished 2025 playoff bracket.
Knowledge reviewed: PFM 2025 end-of-season rating snapshot dated February 9, 2026; ultimate 2025 regular-season information; accomplished NFL playoff bracket via Tremendous Bowl LX.
Evaluate be aware: The 0.90 determine is the Pearson correlation between the hooked up public PFM Scores and ultimate regular-season win proportion throughout all 32 groups.
Official outcomes: 2025 NFL Playoff Bracket and 2025 NFL Standings.
